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CrisisWatch May 2025

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Global Overview

Our monthly conflict tracker highlights a conflict resolution opportunity betweenthe Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, as the two countries remained committed to reaching an agreement in June under U.S. auspices to halt the fighting between Rwanda-backed M23 rebels and Congolese forces in the eastern DRC.

CrisisWatch warns of two conflict risks in June.

  • Israel’s relentless assault on Gaza since it shattered the ceasefire in March has killed over 4,000 Palestinians, while its weaponisation of hunger has created a “critical risk” of famine. A new Israeli military operation in the strip, which is home to over two million people, promises further death, displacement and privation.
  • In Yemen, the U.S. ended its seven-week bombardment in a surprise truce with the Houthis, but Israel and the group continued to exchange fire, setting the stage for further hostilities.

Our tool identified nine deteriorations in May. Notably:

  • Following a lethal militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir in April, India and Pakistan became embroiled in the deadliest and most severe military confrontation since the 1971 war, before agreeing to a U.S.-mediated ceasefire.
  • In Bangladesh, Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus threatened to resign as relations with the military and opposition faced growing strains, posing a challenge to the country’s transition.
  • The most intense fighting in years rocked Libya’s capital, Tripoli, undermining the authority of Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dabaiba.
  • In Sudan, drone attacks on the Red Sea coastal city of Port Sudan extended the war to the country’s far east for the first time, signalling a dramatic escalation that risks drawing regional powers more deeply into the conflict.
  • Jihadist militants in Burkina Faso launched a series of large-scale assaults on army positions and shifted their strategy by seizing secondary towns, leaving hundreds dead and exposing critical weaknesses in the military’s defences.

Our tracker also assessed two improved situations in May. The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) announced its decision to disband and end its 40-year armed struggle against Türkiye. In a historic move, U.S. President Trump lifted all sanctions on Syria and met its interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa.

Aside from the scores of conflict situations we regularly assess, we tracked significant developments in: Bolivia, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, New Caledonia (France), South Africa, Tanzania and Togo.