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CrisisWatch May 2020

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The latest edition of Crisis Group’s monthly conict tracker highlights deteriorations in May in seven countries and conict situations. In Sudan, intercommunal violence erupted in the country’s west, east and south while peace talks with rebel groups suffered new delays. In South Sudan, intercommunal violence between ethnic Murle and ethnic Lou Nuer surged in the east killing hundreds. Venezuelan authorities foiled an armed incursion by sea and detained dozens of opposition supporters, while opposition leader Guaidó lost ground in his battle to control the National Assembly.

Looking ahead to June, CrisisWatch warns of three conict risks. In Burundi, a potentially violent post-electoral crisis looms after the opposition challenged the provisional results of the 20 May presidential election in the Constitutional Court. In Libya, after the capital Tripoli suffered increased shelling and civilian casualties in May, external military support on both sides could fuel further escalation. Fighting in Yemen’s north and a power struggle in the south could intensify unless progress is made toward a nationwide ceasere.

We also flag a resolution opportunity in the coming month in the Nile Basin. After recently opting to revive Nile Dam talks, Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt have a chance to de-escalate tensions and make progress toward resolving the Nile Waters dispute.