Attachments
CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories. Building on our global conflict tracker, On the Horizon sounds the alarm about conflicts and crises that may emerge or escalate over the next three to six months in support of global conflict prevention efforts.
Global Overview June 2025
Outlook for This MonthJuly 2025
Conflict Risk Alerts
Afghanistan Iran Israel/Palestine
Resolution Opportunities
Trends for Last Month June 2025
Deteriorated Situations
Armenia Bolivia Chad Colombia Iran Israel/Palestine Kenya Mali Syria Thailand Togo Ukraine
Improved Situations
Democratic Republic of Congo Rwanda
Our monthly conflict tracker highlights three conflict risks and one resolution opportunity in July.
- Israel launched a devastating war – joined by the U.S. – against Iran, which killed hundreds of Iranians and dozens of Israelis. A fragile ceasefire halted the fighting but could be put to the test in the coming weeks.
- Israel continued its policy of mass starvation in Gaza as its relentless attacks killed over 2,000 Palestinians in June. While diplomatic efforts aimed at a ceasefire could gather steam in July, Israel may kill thousands more desperate Palestinians and maintain a chaotic aid system that further entrenches starvation.
- Iran’s expulsion drive against Afghans – exacerbated by Israel’s war on Iran – forced hundreds of thousands to return to Afghanistan. Both Tehran and Pakistan could intensify forcible returns in July, further straining an aid system facing a severe funding shortfall.
CrisisWatch identified twelve deteriorated situations in June. Notably:
- Russian forces pressed forward on several fronts in Ukraine’s east and north, taking the largest swathe of territory they have captured in 2025 to date, while escalating aerial attacks on cities, including the capital Kyiv.
- In Syria, a shadowy jihadist group, Saraya Ansar al-Sunna (SAS), claimed the first major suicide attack in the capital Damascus since the fall of the Assad dynasty, which killed dozens of Christians.
- The security situation in Mali deteriorated sharply as jihadists escalated deadly attacks on the army in the country’s north and centre, and struck closer to the capital, Bamako.
- Anti-government demonstrations in Kenya, sparked by a death in custody and the commemoration of deadly protests from June-July 2024, saw clashes with police that reportedly killed over a dozen people.
- An assassination attempt on presidential candidate Miguel Uribe sent shockwaves through Colombia and fuelled concerns about political violence ahead of the elections in 2026 amid worsening insecurity across the country.
- In Bolivia, supporters of former President Evo Morales protested his barring from the August presidential election, sparking clashes with police that left at least six people dead.
Our tracker also assessed two improved situations. A peace agreement between Kinshasa and Kigali offers a chance to quell hostilities in the eastern DR Congo, where fighting between Rwanda-backed M23 rebels and Congolese forces has been raging since 2022.
Aside from the scores of conflict situations we regularly assess, we tracked significant developments in: China-U.S., South Africa, Tanzania, Togo and U.S. Internal.