Global Overview January 2025
Our monthly conflict tracker highlights one resolution opportunity and seven conflict risks in February.
- Marking a major breakthrough, Israel and Hamas struck a ceasefire agreement in Gaza after more than fifteen months of war. The deal’s three phases, if completed, should lead to a permanent ceasefire but the agreement’s ambiguities and/or far-right pressure in Israel could derail the process and see war resume, while Israeli raids and settler violence could further rise in the West Bank. Meanwhile, the Houthis in Yemen scaled down their anti-Israel and Red Sea attacks after the Gaza ceasefire. Yet increased U.S.-Israeli pressure could prompt the group to restart attacks or escalate their conflict with Yemeni government forces.
- The Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group seized Goma, a city of one million people, in DR Congo’s North Kivu province (see our Conflict in Focus). Clashes killed hundreds and displaced hundreds of thousands. The situation could further deteriorate if the conflict spreads further into neighbouring South Kivu, as the next target could well be the province’s capital Bukavu. There is a real risk of a wider regional conflagration, which could further pull in Burundi, whose troops have already been heavily involved in the fighting alongside their Congolese allies, threatening the stability of its government.
- Momentum swung in favour of Sudan’s army as it retook the strategic state capital of Gezira and much of Greater Khartoum, where fighting could intensify in the coming weeks.
- In Colombia, the guerrilla National Liberation Army launched a coordinated offensive in the coca-growing region of Catatumbo, targeting civilians and a rival dissident FARC faction. The assault could lead to more violence between the two illegal groups and ignite other battlefronts involving a range of armed outfits.
CrisisWatch identified six deteriorations in January. Notably:
- Hundreds of al-Qaeda-affiliated fighters attacked a military base in Benin’s north, killing dozens in the country’s deadliest jihadist attack on security forces to date.
- Authorities in Ecuador again imposed a state of exception as criminal violence rose sharply, with 658 violent deaths recorded in the first weeks of January.
- The suspension of Russian gas supplies to Moldova triggered an energy crisis, leaving thousands in the breakaway region of Transnistria without heating or hot water amid freezing temperatures.
Our tracker also assessed three improved situations. Notably, Mozambique’s post-election crisis eased as the newly-inaugurated president Daniel Chapo promised reforms and protests largely subsided.
Aside from the scores of conflict situations we regularly assess, we tracked significant developments in Bolivia, Comoros Islands, Gabon, Moldova, South Africa, Tanzania, U.S./Russia and U.S. (Internal).