Attachments
Global Overview
Our monthly conflict tracker highlights thirteen conflict risks – seven linked to the Israel-U.S. war on Iran and Tehran’s unprecedented retaliation across the region – and one resolution opportunity in March:
- Israeli and U.S. attacks on Iran ignited a multi-front war in the Middle East, directly impacting at least a dozen countries thus far. If it is not rapidly contained, the war could continue to expand uncontrollably, kill many more people and result in far-reaching, unpredictable consequences for all involved.
- Major cross-border hostilities erupted between Pakistan and the Taliban rulers in Afghanistan, collapsing the October 2025 ceasefire, killing scores and raising the prospect of a spiralling conflict.
- The massing of forces in northern Ethiopia by federal authorities, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and Eritrea – which Addis Ababa accuses of forging a hostile alliance with the TPLF – fanned fears of a return to armed conflict.
- The growing use of drones in DR Congo’s conflict with the M23 armed group and its backer, Rwanda, heightened the risk of the fighting spilling over from the Kivu provinces into other parts of the country.
- The U.S. oil blockade brought Cuba to the brink of a humanitarian collapse and fuelled fears that Washington could take more decisive action against the island in the coming weeks.
- In more positive developments, U.S.-led talks brought together key stakeholders in the Western Sahara conflict for the first time since 2019, creating a narrow window for diplomatic progress.
CrisisWatch identified thirteen deteriorations in February. Notably:
- Chad closed its border with Sudan after the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) again launched a cross-border attack, as signs mount that Chadian army officers are increasingly acting outside formal command structures to support anti-RSF groups in Darfur.
- Jihadist attacks escalated in Nigeria’s western axis of the North Central Zone, leaving over 200 civilians dead and confirming the expansion of violence beyond the country’s north-eastern and north-western hotspots.
- Mexico’s armed forces killed the powerful Jalisco Cartel’s leader, alias El Mencho, setting off a violent cartel uprising that engulfed numerous states and renewed concerns about the risks of targeting kingpins.
- President Japarov ousted his security chief and long-time ally, Kamchybek Tashiev, sending shockwaves through Kyrgyzstan as he moved to consolidate power ahead of the January 2027 elections.
Our tracker assessed one improvement. In Bangladesh, a historic national election proceeded largely peacefully and led to a smooth transition of power.
Aside from the scores of conflict situations we regularly assess, we tracked significant developments in: Bosnia & Herzegovina, China-U.S., Guatemala, Guinea-Bissau, the Nile Waters, Sierra Leone, South Africa and Tanzania.