Attachments
CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories. Building on our global conflict tracker, On the Horizon sounds the alarm about conflicts and crises that may emerge over the next three to six months in support of global conflict prevention efforts.
Global Overview April 2025
Our monthly conflict tracker highlights conflict resolution opportunities between Russia and Ukraine, where a U.S. ceasefire framework proposal provided a basis for talks toward a deal, and between DR Congo and Rwanda, who committed to drafting a peace agreement by early May, which could help resolve the conflict between Congolese forces and Rwanda-backed M23 rebels.
CrisisWatch warns of three conflict risks in May.
- The deadliest militant attack on civilians in Indian-administered Kashmir in over two decades triggered a major crisis between India and Pakistan, raising the prospect of armed conflict between the nuclear-armed neighbours (see the Conflict in Focus).
- Israel’s relentless bombardment of Gaza since shattering the ceasefire in March has killed over 2,300 Palestinians, while its two-month total siege has created the worst starvation crisis since the war began for the strip’s 2.2 million people. Having seized vast tracts of territory, Israeli leaders remain intent on pursuing a maximalist agenda that involves indefinite occupation and the mass expulsion of Palestinians.
- In Yemen, the U.S. broadened its bombing campaign against the Houthis and reportedly killed scores of civilians in two of its deadliest airstrikes to date. The Houthis, who look set to continue attacks on U.S. warships and Israel as well as probing assaults on government forces along domestic frontlines, threatened neighbouring countries against supporting a rumoured U.S.-backed ground offensive.
Our tool identified fourteen deteriorations in April. Notably:
- Conflict raged in South Sudan’s Upper Nile state between President Kiir’s fighting force and an ethnic Nuer opposition militia amid the first stirrings of renewed civil war.
- Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces launched a new push to capture North Darfur’s embattled state capital El Fasher, reportedly killing and injuring hundreds of people, while fighting intensified in South Kordofan state.
- In Nigeria, long-running herder-farmer conflicts, compounded by ethnic and religious tension, escalated in the North Central zone, leaving over 220 dead, while a resurgent Boko Haram insurgency killed dozens in the North East.
- The political climate heated up in Côte d’Ivoire as authorities barred the main opposition leader, Tidjane Thiam, from contesting the October presidential election.
- Tensions also surged in Tanzania as police arrested several opposition figures and electoral authorities disqualified the main opposition party, Chadema, from running in the October polls.
- A diplomatic crisis erupted between Algeria and Mali after Algerian forces shot down a Malian drone near their shared border. Meanwhile, a national consultation in Bamako recommended appointing the interim leader, General Goïta, as president for a renewable five-year term, paving the way for the military to stay in power.
- Authorities in Tunisia handed down lengthy prison terms on dozens of opposition and civil society figures in an unprecedented mass trial, while thousands protested the escalating crackdown on dissent, and unrest flared in a marginalised region.
- A separatist group in Indonesia’s easternmost Papua region undertook its deadliest attack in years, killing at least eleven miners it alleged were disguised soldiers.
Our tracker also assessed one improved situation in April. Iran and the U.S. held three rounds of nuclear talks, making unexpected yet uncertain progress toward a new accord.
Aside from the scores of conflict situations we regularly assess, we tracked significant developments in: Bosnia & Herzegovina, Gabon, Jordan, Peru, South Africa and U.S. (Internal).