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CrisisWatch April 2020

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The latest edition of Crisis Group’s monthly conflict tracker highlights deteriorations in April in twelve countries and conflict situations. In South Sudan, political leaders’ failure to agree on local power-sharing jeopardised the unity government, while a truce with holdout rebel groups in the south broke down. Militant attacks and counter-insurgency operations inside Jammu and Kashmir sharply intensified, and hate speech falsely accusing Muslims in India of propagating COVID-19 fuelled intercommunal attacks. In Myanmar, deadly fighting between the Arakan Army and the military continued at a high tempo in Rakhine and Shan States. A sudden spike in the number of homicides in El Salvador reversed months of improving security.

Looking ahead to May, we warn of worsening situations in four countries. A deadly escalation looms in Burundi as the country heads to the polls on 20 May amid ongoing repression of the opposition and a surge in clashes between supporters and opponents of the ruling party. Sri Lanka could face an unprecedented constitutional crisis unless the President recalls parliament by 2 June. In Libya, April’s unprecedented levels of violence around Tripoli and in western Libya could further escalate. In Yemen, after weeks of rising tensions between secessionists and government forces, violence could flare up again in the south, unless progress toward a nationwide ceasefire is made.