1. Adjustments/changes to your theories of change (ToC)
While no substantial changes have been made to the overall balance of the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) Flagships (FP) nor to its Theory of Change, the introduction of Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Research for Africa (AICCRA) to the program is an exciting development for CCAFS Flagships 1, 2, and 4, as well as for the teams in East Africa (EA) and West Africa (WA).
The World Bank’s approval of AICCRA will mean an extension of these Flagships until 2024, and will further strengthen CCAFS work in Africa. This will be done by contributing to a broader uptake and implementation of Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) and Climate Information Services (CIS) across the continent, underpinned by sustainable finance.
Another notable development is the implementation of a new project “agroecological transitions for building resilient and inclusive agricultural and food systems”. This will be led by Flagship 3 and is funded by the European Union (EU) in collaboration with World Agroforestry (ICRAF) and International Rice Research Institute (IRRI). The project will be active in Africa, Southeast Asia (SEA) and Latin America (LAM), running from 2021 to 2023.
2. Plans and expected progress towards outcomes
Flagship 1 (FP1): Priorities and Policies for Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA)
Projects in all regions will focus on improving country preparedness to climatic risks, bringing to scale interventions that enable agriculture to meet food security and nutritional needs. Activities will continue to support Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) interventions to be better targeted, strengthening engagement with government and multilateral organizations. This will be done through a variety of approaches such as participatory scenarios, gaming methods and dialogue platforms. Support to the African Group of Negotiators Experts Support (AGNES) will continue in preparation for COP26. Studies on the impacts of CCAFS work on policy and investment will be undertaken, and syntheses carried out on climate change and nutrition work—as well as gender inclusion in policy—to derive key findings for future CGIAR work on climate change. The integration of gender and social inclusion (GSI) issues in different policy processes in Kenya, Ethiopia, Honduras, Nicaragua, Tanzania and Uganda will continue. A synthesis will be undertaken of the inclusion of gender concerns in CCAFS’ participatory scenario processes, as well as national climate policy in sub-Saharan Africa. Indicators will be tested to track progress towards CCAFS gender-related policy sub-Intermediate Development Outcomes (IDOs) and the transformation of gender-related issues in target countries. Work on the use of gaming methods will continue, the effectiveness of different game prototypes in engaging young people will be tested, with the aim of developing their capacity to articulate the aspirations of policy dialogues in Kenya. A global overview of gender equality in the context of climate adaptation and mitigation will address climateresilient agriculture in the context of other climate sectors.
Scenario quantification work on food and nutrition security, as well as capacity development for key stakeholders will be documented at multiple scales for selected countries in Latin America and South Asia (SA), using enhanced integrated assessment models as well as microsimulation models to explore the distributional effects of alternative scenarios. This work aims to influence regional dialogues about sustainable and nutritious diets and their likely benefits and costs, and will assess the climate sensitivity of key commodity value chains with respect to food and nutrition outcomes in target countries. A synthesis will be undertaken of climate change and nutrition research by CCAFS and partners over the last 10 years, including in the CCAFS-led Climate-Smart Villages (CSVs)
AICCRA activities will include work on several decision support tools and capacity development of regional and pan-African organizations. FP1 will contribute with decision support tools and policy landscape analyses to support the Africa-wide delivery of Climate Information Services (CIS) and CSA. Work will also focus on enhancing capacities and collaboration among regional and pan-African partners, and identifying big-ticket opportunities for taking CIS and CSA to scale. FP1 foresight work planned in 2021 includes activities on forage and crop suitability analyses, as part of the Flagship’s learning platform (LP) on “ex-ante evaluation and decision support for climate-smart options”, in collaboration with several CGIAR centers and CGIAR Research Programs (CRPs). Work will continue on elucidating the impact of transformational technologies on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and food systems, contributing to improved understanding of future investment and research needs. Several outcomes are based on CGIAR science: the seed sharing agreements in Southeast Asia; the development of the Renewable Natural Resources Strategy for 2040 in Bhutan; the revision of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Climate Change Strategy and the Regional Indicative Strategic Development Plan (RISDP); the Kenya Multi-Stakeholder Platform and implementation of the national CSA strategy; and design and implementation of the World Bank and German Society for International Co-operation (GIZ) investment projects in several countries.