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CAST Report January 2025

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The ACLED Conflict Alert System (CAST) forecasts organized political violence up to six months into the future. Forecasts are made globally - at the national and sub-national levels - and can be disaggregated by event type (battles, explosions/remote violence, or violence against civilians). Every month, ACLED CAST produces a report highlighting key conflict developments and significant predictions for the coming months.

This report reflects the January 2025 update of global forecasts.