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Briefing Note: Overview of El Niño Response in East and Southern Africa (as of 1 December 2016)

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El Niño in East Africa

The impact of El Niño has affected over 19.5 million people (FNSWG March 2016) and over 10.5 million children in East Africa. Rainfall patterns varied between above- and belowhistoric averages in Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan, which are among the worst countries affected by El Niño in this region.
The humanitarian situation in Djibouti continues to be of concern due to a combination of the impact of El Niño and drought conditions spanning over two decades. Some 159,000 people are experiencing a food security crisis due to drought. Similarly, in Kenya about 1.2 million people are facing crisis and emergency food insecurity under the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (phases 3 and 4 of IPC) and will require humanitarian assistance until February 2017.

For parts of the region that received below-average rainfall, signs of increased vulnerabilities are evident, especially in southern and south-eastern Ethiopia and northern Somalia.
These signs include low food supply from poor harvests, increased malnutrition, lack of employment in the agricultural sector, livestock deaths, increased market prices for food, lower prices for livestock, and depleted pasture and water resources. Additionally, children are at risk of being exposed to malnutrition, water shortages, disease outbreaks, childprotection violations and disruptions to their education.

The United States meteorological agency confirmed on 10 November that La Niña conditions were already present, though this has not been corroborated by other agencies.
Forecasts indicate that there is a 55 per cent chance for these conditions to return to neutral in early 2017. The effects of this weather phenomenon are most concerning for the Horn of Africa in particular, where continued below average rainfall is forecast across the main growing and sowing months, with a very significant potential impact on food insecurity and malnutrition. Of particular concern are Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya, where back-to-back below-average harvests will impact on millions of food insecure farmers and pastoralists and will likely deepen humanitarian needs significantly, extending the current humanitarian response requirements well into 2017.

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