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Asia and the Pacific: El Niño Humanitarian Snapshot - Focus on Indonesia, Timor-Leste and Papua New Guinea (As of 31 August 2023)

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El Niño outlooks across the four main forecasters remain the same as a month ago. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of Columbia University have all released their El Niño declarations. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) holds firm on their El Niño Alert, but notes in their latest update on 29 August that El Niño is just below the threshold for declaration while the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) appears likely to become positive between September and November 2023.

DRY CONDITIONS

Starting from September/October, (parts of) several Asian countries, including Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste, the Philippines, southern Viet Nam, and the Central Dry Zone of Myanmar, are likely to record below-average rainfall trends, warranting careful observation.

WET CONDITIONS

Afghanistan, Pakistan and Sri Lanka are among the countries with forecasts of above-average rainfall, raising the risk of potential sudden flooding.

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