Nearing the end of El Niño
El Niño remains but is nearing its end, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). Oceanic indicators such as tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures still meet El Niño thresholds, but have been steadily cooling since December 2023. International climate models indicated that the central tropical Pacific Ocean would likely continue to cool in the coming months, with four of seven models suggesting a return to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) levels by the end of April (i.e., neither El Niño nor La Niña), and all models indicating neutrality in May.
While four of seven international models predict a La Niña by Q3 of 2024, forecasts for El Niño and La Niña made in early Q2 tend to have lower accuracy than those made at other times of the year. As such, caution should be exercised when using current ENSO forecasts beyond May. Historically, ENSO forecasts had their lowest skill for predictions issued in April, with skill levels increasing from May onwards.
Disclaimer
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