Anticipatory action in fragile and conflict-affected settings, December 2025

The humanitarian system is at an inflection point. Nearly 240 million people worldwide require assistance, the majority in fragile and conflict-affected settings where crises are increasingly frequent, complex, and deadly. Meanwhile, aid budgets are shrinking, with humanitarian funding projected to decline by up to 45 per cent by the end of 2025 compared with 2023. This widening gap has accelerated calls for a more efficient, equitable, and risk-informed humanitarian model, as envisioned in the Humanitarian Reset.

Anticipatory action (AA) has emerged as a key enabler of the Reset’s vision and can help to offset the impact of the aid cuts. By acting ahead of predictable shocks, such as floods, cyclones, droughts, or disease outbreaks, AA protects lives and livelihoods, strengthens local leadership and accountability, and reduces the cost and scale of humanitarian response. In 2024, almost 40 per cent of all AA activations took place in fragile and conflict-affected countries, representing two-thirds of global funding disbursements for AA. Evidence from Afghanistan, Haiti, Somalia, and Yemen shows AA is both feasible and impactful, improving food security, reducing negative coping strategies, and stabilizing fragile conditions.

However, AA faces major barriers in these settings, including weak data and forecasting, administrative challenges, and severe access and security constraints. Effective implementation requires robust risk analysis, flexible targeting, and adaptive programming. Partnerships with national agencies, global open-source forecasts, and locally led delivery models have helped overcome some challenges.

To unlock AA’s full potential, donor leadership and sustained investment are critical. Key policy recommendations to government donors include:

1. Increase predictable, multi-year and flexible financing for AA in FCV countries, including through existing pooled funds and direct support to local actors wherever possible.
2. Invest in data, forecasting and analytical capacity, hydrometeorological infrastructure, and open data standards.
3. Strengthen political and diplomatic support to institutionalize AA and overcome access, policy, and bureaucratic barriers.
4. Support partnerships, coordination, and evidence generation, funding public goods such as toolkits, evaluations, and common platforms.

Anticipatory action is not only possible in fragile and conflict-affected settings, it is essential. Acting before predictable shocks prevents crises from escalating, protects fragile development gains, and reduces emergency response costs. With sustained investment, robust data systems, and strong partnerships, AA can transform humanitarian response in the world’s most vulnerable contexts.