Attachments
Executive Summary
The Annual Tropical Cyclone Report (ATCR) is prepared by the staff of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), a jointly manned United States Air Force (USAF)/Navy (USN) organization under the operational command of the Commanding Officer, Joint Typhoon Warning Center under the Commander, Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command (CNMOC).
The JTWC was established on 1 May 1959 when the Joint Chiefs of Staff directed Commander-in-Chief, US Pacific Command (USCINCPAC) to provide a single tropical cyclone warning center for the Northwestern Pacific region. USCINCPAC delegated the tropical cyclone forecast and warning mission to Commander, Pacific Fleet (PACFLT). A subsequent USCINCPAC directive further tasked Commander, Pacific Air Force (PACAF) to provide for tropical cyclone (TC) reconnaissance mission for the JTWC. A recent USAF Weather reorganization reassigned all USAF operational weather personnel to the Air Combat Command (ACC); JTWC’s USAF Satellite Analysts, administratively assigned to the 17th Operational Weather Squadron (OWS), are under ACC. USN personnel remain assigned operationally through CNMOC to Commander, U.S. Fleet Forces (USFF) and administratively to Commander, Navy Information Forces (NAVIFOR). Currently, JTWC operations are guided by USPACOM Instruction 0539.1, 2017 CNMOC/CTG 80.7 OPORD, and PACAF Instruction 15-101.
This edition of the ATCR documents the 2016 TC season and details operationally or meteorologically significant cyclones noted within the JTWC Area of Responsibility. Details are provided to describe either significant challenges and/or shortfalls in the TC warning system and to serve as a focal point for future research and development efforts. Also included are tropical cyclone reconnaissance statistics and a summary of tropical cyclone research or tactics, techniques and procedure (TTP) development that members of JTWC conducted.
The 2015 strong El Nino gave way to neutral conditions for 2016 which resulted in the formation region shift back westward in the Northwestern Pacific. While the total number of 30 storms was near normal, the season started very late with the first named storm not occurring until 3 July 2016. Impacted areas included Okinawa by two cyclones, Guam by one cyclone, South Korea by one cyclone, and mainland Japan by five cyclones.
The Southern Hemisphere activity was well below the long term average of 28, with only 20 cyclones. There was a notable minimum of cyclones that impacted Australia; one made landfall on the Northwestern coast and the other in the Gulf of Carpentaria. There was also a notable increase in activity in the South Pacific, with 10 cyclones that occurred east of 155 E. The North Indian Ocean experienced normal activity of five cyclones, with four in the Bay of Bengal and one in the Arabian Sea.
Microwave, Electro-optic, Infrared and scatterometry satellite data remained critical to the TC reconnaissance mission at JTWC. USAF Satellite Analysts exploited a wide variety of conventional and microwave satellite data to produce 8,274 position and intensity estimates (fixes), primarily using the USAF Mark IVB and the USN FMQ-17 satellite receiving and direct readout systems. Geo-located microwave satellite imagery overlays available via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system from Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) and the Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey (NRLMRY) were also used by JTWC to make TC fixes. This year, EUMETSAT announced METEOSAT-7, positioned at longitude 57 East, would run out of fuel and would no longer provide imagery over the Indian Ocean starting in April 2017. It was decided that METEOSAT-8 would be moved to cover part of the area until the World Meteorological Organization could assign geostationary satellite coverage to another member. The selected position, longitude 41.5 East, left the eastern portion of the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal on the edge of the satellite field of view, making position and intensity estimation much less accurate in these areas.
JTWC continued to collaborate with TC forecast support and research organizations such as the FNMOC, NRLMRY, Naval Post Graduate School, the Office of Naval Research, the 557 Weather Wing, and NOAA Line Offices for continued development of TC reconnaissance tools, numerical models and forecast aids. Additionally, the USN contracted with Raytheon to purchase the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System at JTWC, FWC Norfolk and FWC SD.
The Technical Services Department remained the voice of JTWC to the research and development community. They continued to evaluate numerical modes, including the Global Air Land Weather Exploitation Model (GALWEM), and moved forward on their “pre-genesis” work, hoping to provide longer leadtime on TC genesis as well as providing the timing of genesis and general movement. The command also reconstituted the Requirements and Planning Department to ensure continuity of resources from both the Navy and Air Force.
Behind all these efforts are the dedicated team of men and women, military and civilian at JTWC. Special thanks to the entire JTWC Information Services Department for their continued outstanding IT support and the administrative and Training Departments who worked tirelessly to ensure JTWC had the necessary resources and professional development enabling mission accomplishment during extremely volatile financial times.
A Special thanks also to: FNMOC for their operational data and modeling support; the NRLMRY and ONR for its dedicated TC research; the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service for satellite reconnaissance support; Dr. John Knaff, Mr. Richard Bankert, Dr. Mark DeMaria, and Mr. Chris Velden for their continuing efforts to exploit remote sensing technologies in new and innovative ways; Mr. Charles R. “Buck” Sampson and Mr. Mike Frost for their outstanding support and continued development of the ATCF system.
Finally, we wish a fond farewell to Mrs. Kerri Kanbara and Ms. Kehau Koa. Thank you both for your outstanding support to the JTWC mission. We hope you enjoy a long and happy life in retirement.