Alert 2024! Report on conflicts, human rights and peacebuilding.

Executive Summary

Alert 2024! Report on conflicts, human rights and peacebuilding is an annual report analyzing the state of the world in terms of conflict and peacebuilding based on three main axes: armed conflict, tensions, gender and peace and security. The analysis of the most relevant events in 2023 and the nature, causes, dynamics, actors and consequences of the main scenarios of armed conflict and social and political tension around the world allows for a regional comparative vision and also allows identifying global trends and elements of risk and preventive warnings for the future. Furthermore, the report also identifies peacebuilding opportunities or opportunities to scale down, prevent or resolve conflicts.

In both cases, one of the main objectives in this report is to make available all the information, analyses and identification of warning factors and peace opportunities for decision-makers, those intervening for the peaceful resolution to conflicts, or those giving a greater political, media or academic visibility to the many situations of political and social violence in the world.

As for the methodology, the contents of this report mainly draw on a qualitative analysis of studies and information made available by many sources –the United Nations, international organizations, research centres, communication media or NGOs, among others– as well as on field research in conflict-affected countries.

Some of the most relevant conclusions and information in the Alert 2024! report are listed below:

• In 2023, 36 armed conflicts were recorded, the highest number since 2014.

• Five new cases were considered armed conflicts in 2023 –Ethiopia (Amhara), Somalia (Somaliland – SSC Khatumo), DRC (west), Sudan and Israel-Hezbollah – while another case ceased to be considered an armed conflict in 2023 –Ethiopia (Tigray).

• The vast majority of cases continued to be concentrated in Africa (18) and Asia and the Pacific (nine), followed by the Middle East (six), Europe (two) and the Americas (one).

• 47% of armed conflicts were of high intensity, characterized by high levels of lethality –over a thousand fatalities annually–, in addition to serious impacts on the population, massive forced displacements and severe consequences on the territory.

• The 17 high-intensity armed conflicts in 2023 were: Ethiopia (Amhara), Ethiopia (Oromiya), Mali, Lake Chad Region (Boko Haram), Western Sahel Region, DRC (East), DRC (East-ADF), Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Myanmar, Pakistan, Russia-Ukraine, Iraq, Israel-Palestine, Syria and Yemen.

• Regarding the evolution of armed conflicts, 42% of cases worsened in 2023.

• According to UNHCR, in the first half of 2023 the global figure for forced displacement amounted to 110 million people. Of this total, 36.4 million people were refugees, 62.5 million were internally displaced, 6.1 million were counted as asylum seekers and another 5.3 million were in the category of people in need of international protection.

• Regarding the refugee population and in need of international protection, in mid-2023 more than half (52%) came from just three countries affected by armed conflicts: Syria (6.5 million people), Afghanistan (6.1 million) and Ukraine (5.9 million).

• In 2023, conflicts and violence motivated internal population movements of more than 20 million people in 45 countries and territories. Sudan, DRC and Palestine account for almost two-thirds of this total.

• During 2023, 114 socio-political crises were identified around the world, six more than in 2022, in line with the upward trend in the number of cases that has been recorded in recent years.

• Africa and Asia and the Pacific were the regions with the highest number of socio-political crises (38 and 33 respectively), followed by the Americas (20), Europe (13) and the Middle East (10).

• Half of the socio-political crises (49%) worsened in 2023 (49%).

• Approximately almost a quarter of the tensions (23%) were international: Eritrea-Ethiopia; DRCRwanda; Venezuela-Guyana; Afghanistan-Pakistan; China-Japan; China-Taiwan; China-Philippines; North Korea-USA, Japan, South Korea; North Korea South Korea; India-China; Armenia-Azerbaijan (Nagorno Karabakh); and Iran-USA, Israel.

• 23 of the 36 armed conflicts that took place throughout 2023 occurred in countries where there were low or medium-low levels of gender equality. Furthermore, 46 of the 114 active tensions during the year 2023 occurred in countries in which low or medium-low levels of equality existed.

• The UN Secretary-General’s annual report on conflictrelated sexual violence identified 49 armed actors who were credibly suspected of having committed or being responsible for rape or other forms of sexual violence in contexts of armed conflict.