By the Africa Center for Strategic Studies
July 31, 2023
A 50-percent spike in fatalities tied to militant Islamist groups in the Sahel and Somalia over the past year has eclipsed the previous high in 2015 when Boko Haram was at its most lethal phase.
Highlights
A year-on-year mid-year review of violence involving African militant Islamist groups assessing trends over the past decade underscores the surge in fatalities in the Sahel and Somalia. Key findings include:
- Fatalities linked to militant Islamist groups reached 22,288 over the past 12 months. This represents a 48-percent increase from the previous year that saw 15,024 fatalities. This level of fatalities is roughly two and a half times more than the pace experienced a decade ago and higher than the record 20,562 set in 2015, mostly driven by Boko Haram’s lethal use of violence.
“The Sahel continues to be the region experiencing the most violent events and fatalities.”
- 80 percent of these fatalities and events are happening in the Sahel and Somalia, which saw spikes in annual militant Islamist-linked deaths of 39 and 157 percent, respectively. The Sahel continues to be the region experiencing the most violent events (2,911) and fatalities (9,818).
- Significant drops in militant Islamist violence in North Africa and northern Mozambique helped moderate the continental increase in violent events, which rose 4 percent. Nonetheless, Africa has experienced a near three-fold increase in reported violent events linked to militant Islamist groups over the past decade (from 1,812 events in 2014 to 6,756 events in 2023). Almost half of that growth happened in the last 3 years.