Attachments
KEY MESSAGES
• The ongoing El Niño is expected to continue at least until June 2024.
• Between July–December 2023, El Niño triggered droughts, wildfires, heatwaves, heavy rains, and floods in many parts of the world. These include severe droughts in Central and northern South America and Southeast Asia and the Pacific, as well as flooding in East Africa.
• Between January–June 2024, several countries already facing humanitarian crises may experience heatwaves, wildfires, floods, droughts, and epidemics. These events are likely to increase the humanitarian needs of the exposed populations, with food security and health expected to be the most affected sectors.
• Seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts anticipate El Niño-induced anomalies to continue during the first semester of 2024. These are dry/wet conditions in Central and South America, South Asia, and Southeast Asia and the Pacific; wet conditions in East Africa; and dry conditions in southern Africa.
• 2024 might surpass 2023 in warmth, marking the first time global warming could exceed the 1.5º C threshold. During the first half of 2024, temperatures are forecast to remain above average worldwide, heightening the risk of heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires, particularly in countries going through their dry season.
EL NIÑO IN 2024: SITUATION OVERVIEW
The current El Niño started in June 2023 and developed moderate to strong intensity during the second half of the year (NOAA accessed 30/01/2024). Between July–December, El Niñoinduced precipitation and temperature anomalies triggered or aggravated droughts and dry spells, wildfires and heatwaves, and heavy rains and floods in many parts of the world. Severe droughts or dry spells were recorded in Central and northern South America as well as Southeast Asia and the Pacific, while flooding hit East Africa (OCHA 28/11/2023; FAO/OCHA 16/11/2023 and 03/11/2023; OCHA 14/12/2023; IDRA accessed 24/01/2024). For more information on El Niño between June–December 2023, please consult our previous report. With El Niño expected to reach its peak around January 2024, its intensity will gradually diminish, and a shift to neutral conditions is forecast between April–July (NOAA accessed 11/01/2024). El Niño-related temperature and precipitation anomalies are expected to continue during the first and second quarters of the year, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions (Met Office 11/2023). Between January–June, El Niño-induced rainfall anomalies are typically recorded in southern Africa (dry conditions), Central Asia (wet conditions), and northern Latin America, the Pacific, and South and Southeast Asia (dry/wet conditions) (IRI accessed 11/01/2024).
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) entered its positive phase in September 2023 and has been enhancing the effects of El Niño in East Africa and the Pacific. It started to weaken in December. Models predict the positive IOD to end between January–February 2024 (BOM 19/09/2023; ASMC accessed 08/01/2024; OCHA 12/09/2023).
Record-breaking temperatures from June onwards made 2023 the hottest year on record, surpassing the previous highs in 2016 by a significant margin. With a temperature increase of 1.48° C compared to the 1850–1900 pre-industrial level, global warming in 2023 got dangerously close to the 1.5º C threshold (EU 09/01/2024). These unusual air temperatures are predominantly driven by unprecedented high surface temperatures in the ocean, which were only partially induced by El Niño and largely attributed to climate change (EU 09/01/2024; NCAS 10/11/2023; NASA 14/09/2023; Ocean & Climate Platform 02/08/2023). Global temperature outlooks suggest that 2024 might surpass 2023 in warmth, marking the first time global temperatures could exceed 1.5º C (Met Office 08/12/2023). During the first half of 2024, temperatures are forecast to remain above average worldwide, heightening the risk of heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires, particularly in regions going through their warm and dry seasons, such as South and Southeast Asia and the Pacific (IRI accessed 10/01/2024; ACAPS accessed 11/01/2024).