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OVERVIEW: According to Viet Nam’s National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) and Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA), on 21 July, Tropical Depression 04W (Butchoy) has strengthened into a Tropical Storm (No. 2) with international name PRAPIROON. At 2200H UTC+7 on 22 July, the centre of the tropical cyclone was located at about 20.6 N and 108.0 E, in the sea area north of Bac Bo Gulf, about 120km East Southeast of Quang Ninh-Hai Phong.
MOVEMENT & INTENSITY: The strongest wind near the center of the storm is level 10 (89-102km/h), gusts of level 13, moving northwest at a speed of about 10km/h. (NCHMF).
FORECAST: According to NCHMF:
- In the next 12 hours, TC PRAPIROON will track to northwest at about 10 km/h over the coastal area of Quang Ninh-Hai Phong with strong winds at Level 8-9 and gusts of up to Level 12.
- In the next 24 hours, TC PRAPIROON shall continue tracking northwestward slightly slowing down at about 5-10 km/h on the Viet Nam/China border area, with wind strength at Level 6 and gusts of up to Level 8.
- In the next 36 hours, it shall move west-northwest at 5-10 km/h and gradually weakening into a low pressure area over the northern mountainous region.
HAZARDS:
Strong Wind – From the night of July 22, the Quang Ninh-Hai Phong area has strong winds of level 7, near the storm’s eye strong winds of level 8, gusts of level 10-11; the Lang Son, Bac Giang, Thai Binh, and Nam Dinh areas will have strong winds of level 5-6, in some places level 7, gusts of level 8-9.
Rough Seas – The Gulf of Tonkin (including Bach Long Vi and Co To islands) has strong winds of level 6-8, near the storm’s eye strong winds of level 9-10, gusts of level 13, very rough seas.
Heavy Rain – From the night of July 22 to July 24, in the Northern region and Thanh Hoa, there will be moderate rain, heavy rain and thunderstorms, locally very heavy rain with the following total rainfall:
- Northeast region: 100-200mm, some places over 300mm
- Northwest region and Thanh Hoa: 50-100mm, some places over 200mm
- People are warned of potential disasters due to heavy rain, thunderstorms, tornado, and lightning (VDDMA).
Rising Water and Big Waves – The Gulf of Tonkin (including Bach Long Vi and Co To islands) has wave heights of 2.5-4.5m, while the coastal waters of Quang Ninh-Hai Phong provinces have waves heights of 2.0-3.0m. The coastal waters of Quang Ninh-Nam Dinh provinces have high tides (on the afternoon of July 23). High tides combined with storm surges can cause water levels at Hon Dau to be 3.8-4.0m high, and at Cua Ong to be 4.6-4.8m high, accompanied by large waves that can cause flooding in low-lying coastal and riverine areas and slow down flood drainage on rivers in the area.
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
- According to VDDMA, the Prime Minister issued Official Dispatch No. 70/CD-TTg dated 21 July 2024 directing focused response to TC PRAPIROON and floods.
- The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development issued Official Dispatch No. 5175/CD-BNN-DD dated 19 July 2024 to coastal provinces and cities from Quang Ninh to Binh Thuan on responding to tropical depression.
- Ministries and branches have issued official dispatches directing their subordinate units to proactively respond to storms and tropical depressions.
- The Department of Dyke Management and Natural Disaster Prevention and Control has issued 2 official dispatches on ensuring safety for fishermen, fishing boats and responding to heavy rains (official dispatches No. 700/DD-UPPKP dated 19 July 2024 and No. 702/DD-UPPKP dated 20 July 2024).
- NCHMF, VDDMA, and relevant authorities continue to closely monitor the situation and issue regular advisories.
The AHA Centre will continue to monitor for further developments and issue necessary updates.
DATA SOURCES
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS), ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet); Pacific Disaster Center (PDC Global); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC);
Viet Nam: VDDMA, NHCMF, VNDMS;
Verified news media agencies;