Viet Nam

Viet Nam: Drought and Saltwater Intrusion Situation Update No. 7 (as of 25 October 2016)

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This report is produced by Office of the Resident Coordinator Viet Nam. It covers the period from 17 September 2016 till 25 October 2016. This is the final situation report for this drought and salt water intrusion emergency.

Highlights

  • By October, more than 54.4% or US$ 26.4 million of the emergency requirement has been funded, primarily for WASH support.

  • With relief operations still on-going but gradually decreasing, recovery efforts are being intensified.

  • Mid-October, the Government jointly with the UN issued a Drought Recovery Plan, estimating recovery needs for 2017 at US$368 million.

  • According to the Government’s forecasting center, drought- like conditions and salinity intrusion are likely occurring in the next dry season (November till April), but less severe than last year.

  • There is a 50-55% likelihood of La Niña happening, starting from November, but with low intensity.

  • Dengue fever cases remain at high level in the Central Highlands and South-Central Vietnam but begun declining in some areas.

18 Provinces affected

2m People faced water stress

1.75m People lost incomes

659,476ha Crops damaged or lost

54% Emergency appeal covered

Situation Overview

In all three affected regions, rainfall has continued over the past month as part of the on-going rainy season. In a few occasions, heavy to very heavy rainfall has caused localized inundation or flash floods, particularly in the Central Highlands. River water levels in the upstream Mekong Delta have peaked and are gradually decreasing over the coming weeks. This year’s water levels in the Mekong were higher than in 2015, but below average.

Currently, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is in a neutral state, meaning no El Niño nor La Niña. According to an updated forecast of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) on 14 October, there is a 50 to 55% probability of La Niña conditions occurring from November this year, with a low intensity and short duration. As a consequence of this, the annual storm season will end later, the North-East monsoon will start earlier and flooding will occur more frequently than in 2015, particularly in Central Viet Nam.

In terms of forecast for the 2016/17 dry season (November to April), river water levels are expected to be: 15-35% lower than average in the Mekong Delta; 20-60% lower than average in the Central Highlands and 70% lower than average in the South-Central region. For all three regions, rainfall will be slightly higher than average in the coming months (Nov. 2016-Feb. 2017), but lower in the months after.

Drought conditions are expected for the coming dry season in the Central Highlands, but not as severe as in 2015/16. The Mekong Delta will also be affected by higher than normal rates of salinity intrusion, but less severe than last year.