OVERVIEW: As of 13 Jun 2021, 0700 HRS UTC+7, Tropical Depression (TD) KOGUMA has reportedly made landfall and is at about 19.9 degrees North latitude, 105.5 degrees East longitude, on the mainland Thanh Hoa area moving Northwest at about 17 km/h and is expected to weaken over 24 hours. It is cautioned that the storm's actual position may shift significantly over the next few days (DMRS, NCHMF).
INTENSITY: the strongest wind speeds in the area near the centre of the tropical depression is 50-60 km/h with strong wind gusts extending up to 80 km from the centre of the tropical depression (NCHMF).
IMPACTS: Forecast from PDC-Global's TAOS model indicate that winds strong enough to cause tree branches to sway may be experienced in Thai Nguyen, Viet Tri, Hanoi, Hai Duong, Hai Phong, and Hon Gai in Viet Nam; 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m) of storm surge may be experienced in the coasts of Hon Gai; and at most 3-6 in (7.6-15.2 cm) of associated rainfall may be experienced along the storm's track (PDC-Global).
OUTLOOK: According to Viet Nam's National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF), TD KOGUMA will continue moving northwest at 15-20 km/h and will weaken further. By 13 Jun, 1300 HRS UTC+7, the centre of the tropical depression will be located on the Viet Nam-Laos border area with wind speeds near the centre of the storm ranging from 40-50 km/h then gradually weakening into a low pressure area.
HAZARDS: strong wind warning at sea in the Gulf of Tonkin (including Bach Long Vi island district) with wave heights up to 3.0 m; strong winds over Northern Delta and Thanh Hoa; heavy rain and thunderstorms with 50-120 mm of rainfall (NCHMF).
The AHA Centre will continue to monitor for further developments and issue necessary updates.