Philippines, Vietnam, China – Tropical Cyclone Sarika (GDACS, JTWC, WMO, NDRRMC, Meteo China) (ECHO Daily Flash of 17 October 2016)
SARIKA (KAREN) made landfall in the Aurora province, in eastern Luzon in the Philippines at around 18.00 UTC on 15 October, as a strong Typhoon with max. sust. winds of the order of 200 km/h. It crossed swiftly the island of Luzon from east to west, passing through the provinces of Aurora, Nueva Vizcava, Nueva Ecija and Pangasinan, losing some strength but remaining a Typhoon. It emerged over the South China Sea a few hours after landfall and moved W-NW in the general direction of Hainan province of China.
At 00.00 UTC on 17 October its centre was located over sea, roughly midway between the Philippines and Hainan and max. sust. winds of 148 km/h. It is expected to approach Hainan early on 18 October, somewhat strengthened, and move over northern Vietnam. Strong winds and heavy rainfall could affect Hainan and the neighbouring southern provinces of China (Guangdong and Guangxi) from 18 October onward, as well as central and northern Vietnam.
As the heaviest rainfall of SARIKA lies on the southern part of the track, central Vietnam could be the most rain-affected area; this poses a significant risk of heavy flooding, as the area is already flooded by the rainfall of Tropical Cyclone AERE, on 14-15 October. JRC calculations indicate a maximum possible storm surge of about 1.5m in northern Vietnam in the morning of 19 October.
During its passage over the Philippines, despite the strong winds and the heavy rainfall (224mm in 24h measured on 15 October) SARIKA does not seem to have caused significant damage, at least according to the national authorities as of early in the morning of 17 October. The National Disaster Management Agency in the morning of 17 October (UTC) reported no casualties, about 200 houses damaged, minor landslides and power cuts. Around 40 000 people were preemptively evacuated and about 25 000 of them were still in shelters as of same date.