Attachments
Key Messages
- Through January 2026, seasonal improvements in food access are driven by year-end increases in income sources such as end-of-the-year double salaries (Aguinaldos), remittances, and social safety net programs including Comités Locales de Abastecimiento y Producción (CLAP). Many households remain dependent on social safety nets to meet basic food needs. However, ongoing local currency depreciation, inflation, and geopolitical tensions are expected to worsen food insecurity from February to May 2026, reversing seasonal improvements and impacting very poor households, especially those with limited access to social programs or income in USD. The areas of highest concern include urban and peri-urban areas of Anzoátegui, Caracas, Sucre, and Zulia.
- Escalating geopolitical instability and growing constraints on Venezuela’s maritime activities are increasing risks to oil export flows – the country’s key source of revenue – and capacity to import refined fuel and other essential goods. As of December, these disruptions have already weakened the fuel supply outlook, leading to elevated transportation costs. In the coming months, restrictions on crude oil exports and sales are expected to tighten further, even though crude oil production has risen by about four percent over the past year to roughly 934 barrels per day (OPEC), indicating relative stability. As export revenue declines, the financing of social safety net programs and engagement in international debt negotiations will most likely be undermined, leading to renewed volatility of the VED and rising inflation.
- Rising staple food prices continue to strain food consumption among very poor households, especially in urban and peri-urban areas. Market monitoring across 77 parishes (parroquias) in 13 states indicates the price of a basic food basket (including rice, maize flour pasta, beans, sugar, cooking oil, butter, canned tuna, and eggs) for a typical, four-person household costs about 100 USD in September 2025 — a 15 percent increase from March, following relative price stability since May 2024. The percent of stores carrying cereals, fats, pasta, legumes, and animal protein has decreased from 81-94 percent in 2024 to 75-88 percent, limiting dietary diversity. These trends are likely to continue, with food prices increasing in both VED and USD, further deteriorating food and market access. Meanwhile, WFP operations have scaled down, with funds covering school feeding programs only confirmed through December 2025; UNICEF nutrition and health assistance is also declining.
- Payment preferences across Venezuela continue to shift toward foreign currency, primarily USD, to mitigate local currency volatility. In 2025, approximately 97 percent of vendors report USD cash as their preferred method of payment, rising from 90 percent in 2024. About 27 percent of stores across the country offer discounts for payments in USD or COP, and VED cash acceptance has declined from 97 percent in 2024 to 93 percent in 2025. In addition, mobile payments increased from 84 percent to 94 percent, while credit or debit card use declined from 88 percent to 83 percent over the same time period.
- Crop production remains constrained by limited seed and input availability, keeping import dependence high; while localized improvements of domestic supply are expected to follow seasonal trends, high food prices will continue to restrict very poor households’ food access. Erratic rainfall continued into December, beyond the typical end of the rainy season, leading to localized flooding inthe southeast. Meanwhile, abnormal dryness persists from earlier deficits in localized areas, even as vegetation conditions in the east have generally improved since last month. Anticipated above-average rainfall through March in eastern Venezuela are expected to replenish previous seasonal deficits without posing further risk of flooding concerns. These conditions, along with average temperatures through April, are expected to support adequate soil moisture for secondary maize and main rice harvests.
The information in this report reflects events as of December 31, 2025. FEWS NET’s analysis of events that occurred in January will become available after January 31, 2026.