Attachments
Key Messages
- Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist countrywide through September 2026, driven by local currency volatility, high inflation rates, and elevated food prices in local currency, resulting in substantial reductions in purchasing power. Pockets of poor households with limited to no access to social safety net programs and/or income in USD are expected to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. The population of concern is concentrated in urban and peri-urban areas – particularly informal settlements around major urban areas such as Caracas – and in Zulia state.
- Currently, between 1.5 and 1.99 million people are in need of humanitarian food assistance; however, gradual improvements in macroeconomic conditions are expected to increase food access and progressively decrease the population in need through September 2026.
- Increases in oil production and exports are likely to facilitate foreign currency inflows – bolstering government revenues and ensuring the financing of social safety net monthly cash transfers. Although the VED/USD exchange rate is expected to remain near 2025 levels, its volatility is likely to decline as the Central Bank of Venezuela increases its intervention in the foreign exchange market, reducing the gap between the official and parallel market rates. Monthly and yearly inflation rates are anticipated to remain elevated and close to 10 and 500 percent, respectively, reflecting a reduced rate of increase compared to 2025.
- Monthly social safety net cash transfers are expected to continue. The Income Contra la Guerra Económica (ICGE) cash transfer is expected to increase in its indexed value from 120 USD to 180 USD around May, while a new cash transfer to replace the CLAP (Comités Locales de Abastecimiento y Producción) in-kind food deliveries is expected around July. Imports and domestic production are expected to keep markets well-supplied, and food prices in USD are likely to remain stable, while prices in VED are expected to persist above last year’s levels and the average.
The analysis in this report is based on information available as of February 20, 2026.