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Description of the Event
Approximate date of impact
According to forecasts issued by the INAMEH, the El Niño phenomenon is estimated to remain present until Q1 2024, resulting in unusual meteorological patterns in Venezuela. For instance, the expansion of the Intertropical Convergence Zone from the Atlantic oscillates between 0° - 2° north. This, added to NOAA's prediction of 65 tropical waves for the 2023 hurricane season is likely to have a significant impact on the most vulnerable communities, particularly between July to September 2023.
What is expected to happen?
The official start of the 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season was on 1 June and will continue until 30 November.
On 25 May, the Executive Branch released a statement addressing the consequences of climate change, specifically noting high temperatures in the Andes region and southern Lake Maracaibo, leading to an intensified hydric cycle and heavy rainfall. The president of the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (INAMEH) mentioned that the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean have experienced elevated temperatures in 2023, resulting in a shift in the forecast with cyclones developing into major hurricanes.
On 26 May, the INAMEH confirmed the arrival of the first tropical wave in Venezuela. INAMEH highlighted that between 55 and 65 meteorological events are expected to impact Venezuela during the 2023 hurricane season in the North Atlantic.
Furthermore, as per the IFRC Climate Center's forecasts, the first tropical waves of the year and their interactions with the intertropical convergence zone have resulted in notable accumulations in certain regions of the country.
This has led to increased rainfall and river levels, particularly in the states of Apure, Bolivar, Sucre, Portuguesa, and Barinas. In these areas, precipitation has surpassed normal levels by up to 100 mm, indicating a positive anomaly or excessive precipitation.
This situation indicates that rainfall and resulting damages are expected to be more severe compared to previous years. Consequently, states such as Apure, Aragua, La Guaira, Portuguesa, and Sucre can expect rains of unusual intensity, leading to potential overflow of rivers, flooding, and landslides. The rapid rise in river levels, particularly those with significant flow, combined with saturated soil conditions, may contribute to these hazards. Given Venezuela's complex circumstances, these impacts have the potential to worsen the country's existing challenges, including health concerns, limited access to safe water, increased risks of vector-borne diseases, protection risks, and the potential for partial or complete loss of livelihoods.