FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
Cereal production in 2018 estimated below the five-year average
Import requirements for 2018/19 forecast above five-year average
Government fixed price of bread at UZS 1 020
Cereal production in 2018 estimated below five-year average
Harvesting of the 2018 cereal spring crops finalized at the end of September. Total cereal production is set at 6.8 million tonnes, which is about 17 percent below the 2017 output and below the five-year average. The year-on-year decrease is mainly due to a reduced 2018 winter wheat output reflecting adverse weather conditions between March and May 2018, which had a negative impact on yields. As a result, the 2018 wheat output is estimated at 6 million tonnes, 13 percent less than the previous year. Maize output is set at an average level of 400 000 tonnes, unchanged from the previous year.
Planting of the winter wheat crop for harvest by mid-2019 is ongoing under favourable weather conditions.
Cereal imports in 2018/19 marketing year forecast above five-year average
In the 2018/19 marketing year (July/June), cereal import requirements are forecast at 3.3 million tonnes, with an increase of 11 percent compared to the previous year, reflecting higher wheat shipments. Wheat imports are set at 3 million tonnes, well above the average. The country raised its imports of high quality milling wheat from Kazakhstan over recent years due to increased local milling capacities. This allows the country to satisfy its domestic needs of wheat flour and export additional supplies of wheat flour to neighbouring countries.
Government fixed the price of bread at UZS 1 020 per loaf
Prices of wheat flour remained overall stable since November 2017 due to the Government’s control over several basic foods.
On 15 September 2018, the Government liberalized the price of bread and over the course of two days the prices increased from UZS 650 (USD 0.08) to UZS 1 200 (USD 0.15) per loaf. In an attempt to curb price surges, the Government fixed the price of bread at UZS 1 020 (USD 0.12) on 17 September 2018 ( see FPMA policy ).
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