This year's total grain harvest is estimated
at about 3.5 million tonnes, about 500 000 tonnes less than the poor harvest
in 2000 and about 0.9 million tonnes less than in 1999 when production
was considered average. Wheat production is estimated at 3.2 million tonnes
and rice at 90 000 tonnes, which compares with 1999 production levels of
3.6 million tonnes of wheat and 421 000 tonnes of rice. The worst affected
areas are Karakalpakstan and Khorzam autonomous regions, where the spring-sown
area and output have fallen by half. Cotton, the main export crop, is forecast
to fall far short of the official target output of 3.9 million tonnes (cottonseed).
Severe water shortages and drought two years in succession are contributing
factors to a significantly low crop production. Water flows in the two
main sources of irrigation, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers are reported
to be about 40 percent of the average flows, while record hot and dry weather
conditions have increased demand for irrigation water. In addition, the
available scarce water is reported to be contaminated with high levels
of salinity.
The cereal import requirement in 2001/02
is tentatively estimated at about 1 million tonnes, roughly 398 000 tonnes
higher than the preceding year's imports. Food aid requirement is estimated
at about 121 000 tonnes, including 60 000 tonnes of wheat, 51 000 tonnes
of rice and 10 000 tonnes of maize. The Government has appealed for international
assistance in the rehabilitation of the irrigation systems, desalinization
equipment and targeted food aid in some areas. UNOCHA estimates that nearly
600 000 people particularly in Karakalpakstan and Khorzam may face food
shortages unless assisted. An FAO/WFP mission in October 2000 found that
45 000 people in Karakalpakstan alone had experienced severe food shortages.