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SOARING FOOD PRICES, IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE LIMITING VULNERABLE PEOPLE’S ACCESS TO FOOD.
Overview
Prolonged dry spells, flooding and high food prices are driving 466,000 people (10 percent of the analysed population) into crisis levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3) between February and May 2025. Limited income-generating opportunities, a dependency on agricultural labour in the 2023/2024 farming season and 2024/2025 Vuli season, and decreased crop production in both the Masika (typically sorghum, millet and maize) and Msimu harvests (typically sorghum, rice and maize) have also limited food availability and access to food. The most affected people are low-income households across the country with low crop production capacities, as well as agricultural and pastoralists households who experienced below average income from the sale of livestock products in the 2023/2024 season.
Compared to the previous IPC analysis published in December 2023, when 900,000 people were classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), the situation has improved. Populations classified in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) have also decreased by around 2.7 million people. This is mainly attributed to a strong seasonal rainfall performance. However, it should be noted that the current analysis covers 16 district councils, whereas the 2023 analysis covered 21 district councils.
The situation is expected to improve further in the projection period (June to October 2025) with 242,000 people (5 percent of the population analysed) in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and nearly 1 million people in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). This is because most areas of Tanzania are expecting normal-to-above-normal rainfall which will have a positive impact on food crops and livestock production. The crop harvest between June and July 2025 is also expected to improve households’ access to food. However, risk factors that could have a negative effect on the food security situation include impacts of climate change such as continued dry spells and flooding; economic issues such as poor purchasing power at the household level and high food crop prices; and a high prevalence of crop and livestock pests/diseases.