For the current period of analysis (November 2021 - April 2022), about 437,000 people, representing 13% of an analysed population of 3.4 million, are estimated to be experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). Overall, an estimated 22,000 people (1% of the population analysed) are classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and around 415,000 people (12% of the population analysed) in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). Around 785,000 people (23% of the population analysed) are classified in IPC Phase 2 (Stressed). Amongst the 14 councils of Tanzania analysed (12 district councils [DCs] and the rural parts of two town councils [TCs]), four councils (Handeni DC, Longido, Mkinga, and Monduli) are classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis), with 20% to 30% of their population experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity (Phase 3 or above). The rest of the councils are classified in IPC Phase 2 (Stressed).
The recent poor harvest resulted in limited food availability and a reduction of casual on-farm labour opportunities related to postharvest activities. During this period, unusually high commodity prices were recorded in all councils analysed. Some of the households continued to deplete their assets, with the majority of households applying consumption-based coping to moderate large food consumption gaps. Limited casual labour opportunities and high staple food prices were observed in most of the councils analysed, playing a major role in driving food insecurity.
For the projected period of analysis (May – September 2022), the number of people facing high levels of acute food insecurity is expected to increase, representing 17% of the population analysed against 13% in the current period of analysis. This is due to anticipated inadequate rainfall, which is expected to be normal to below normal. This is likely to contribute to low production of food crops and livestock, which will in turn lead to decreasing food stocks available at household level, as a majority of households depend on rain-fed farming and agro-pastoralism. As a consequence of low production, prices are also projected to increase and will negatively impact food access. It is projected that about 497,000 people (14% of the population analysed) will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and about 95,000 people (3% of the population analysed) will be in an Emergency situation (IPC Phase 4). Around 929,000 people (26% of the population analysed) are projected to be in a Stressed situation (IPC Phase 2). The situation is projected to deteriorate for three councils (Korogwe TC, Mwanga and Same), which will go from IPC Phase 2 in the current period to IPC Phase 3 in the projected period. The four district councils of Handeni, Longido, Mkinga and Monduli will also remain classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).