Summary
Food insecurity in the central regions is increasing as stocks run out and alternative means of obtaining food are constrained.
Delays and shortfalls in food aid deliveries have played a possible role in increasing food prices and weight loss amongst under-fives.
Prices, particularly for maize, continue to escalate in rural and urban markets.
Rainfall has improved since December, but continues to be below normal, calling the current cropping season into question.
The Food Security Information Team (FSIT) plans to update its evaluation of the food security situation next month.
1. Food insecurity apparent in central regions
The findings of a recent FEWS NET visit to Dodoma and Singida Regions in central Tanzania suggest that food security in these areas is worsening. While the Rapid Vulnerability Assessment in June/July 2003 estimated that, from November, approximately 200,000 people in this area would run short of food before the next harvest, it is clear that many more households have already run out of food stocks, and their alternative means of obtaining food are increasingly constrained.
The central regions of Tanzania are not typically surplus areas, so it is common for households in this area, especially the poorer ones, to run out of their own food stocks before the beginning of the next harvest (April/May). In January of a typical year, however, most households are usually still able to meet food needs from their stocks and are busy cultivating their fields, with only limited numbers laboring elsewhere. When the harvest nears and stocks run out, they turn to the market, selling livestock (for better-off households) or labor (for poorer households) to earn the cash necessary to buy food.
This year, however, stocks have run out early, and market options are limited. In particular, the terms of trade between livestock and cereals have deteriorated. For example, around this time last year in Chonde village (Dodoma Rural District) one could, with the sale of one cow, purchase around forty tins (720 kg) of maize, or the equivalent of around seven months of food for a household of six1. This year, however, for the same cow, one can only buy around seven tins of maize (126 kg), which would cover just over a month of food for the same household. Figure 1 illustrates the worsening terms of trade for Chiboli and Chonde villages (Dodoma Rural District) between August 2003 and January 2004. Maize prices have increased due to shortages, and livestock prices have fallen due to poor livestock condition and livestock keepers' declining powers to negotiate as their need for cash increases.
Figure 1: Terms of trade between cattle and cereals in some villages in Dodoma Rural districts
Source: FEWS NET/Tanzania Field visits
In addition, rural wages have dropped sharply and labor opportunities are constrained. More people than normal are now seeking labor opportunities, both within and outside their villages, but jobs are hard to come by since fewer people have the means to hire help. Labor demand is reduced further by the poor progress of the rainy season, which makes farmers reluctant to invest in agricultural inputs, such as labor, when it is unlikely they will see an adequate return on this investment at the harvest. Because of this imbalance between labor supply and effective demand, wages have dropped 30-50 percent compared to last year.
Some households, especially those close to urban areas and with access to a means of transport, have resorted to charcoal making in an attempt to offset these production and labor demand shortages. In addition, where residual water is available, along valleys and streambeds, a limited number of households are producing vegetables for sale.
Local informants in Dodoma and Singida claimed that, although quantities of the distributed food aid were too low to offset the food shortages faced by local households, they would have helped to protect their livelihoods and facilitate cultivation of their fields if implementation was timely. See section below for more details on food aid.
Because of delayed implementation and inadequate food aid distribution, people are increasingly relying on gifts from households that still have some food in stock. While better-off households normally provide food to poorer households in the form of direct gifts, loans, or in exchange for labor, this year the number of households receiving food and the amount of food provided in loans or gifts was much higher than normal. Loans are repaid in the form of either cash or labor or food from the next harvest. Those who borrow food, therefore, begin the next season already facing a potential shortfall.
Crop sales by villagers this year were lower than normal, but higher than expected given the food shortages, because farmers were compelled to sell their food to buy essential non-food items or services and they lacked other income-earning opportunities.
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