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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Lloyd’s Register Foundation World Risk Poll, when combined with associated data from the Gallup World Poll and a number of other sources, reveals a complex and sometimes counterintuitive view of the world for both Ukrainians and Russians prior to the Russian invasion in 2022.
Ukrainian citizens’ positive sentiments on a number of questions on social wellbeing were on the rise at a time when global averages were in decline.
In the lead-up to the invasion, Ukrainians’ perceptions of safety and security were improving, with the percentage of people reporting feeling safer than five years prior rising from 19 to 26 per cent, bringing it closer to the global average. This represents a major increase, especially as it came at a time when the global average fell markedly, from 36 to 27.4 per cent, and for Russians the rate fell from 19.2 to 17.4 per cent.
The conflict has unfolded within the context of Ukraine’s increasing socio-political reorientation toward the West. By November 2021, 58 per cent of Ukrainians said that, if the country were to join just one economic union, it should join the European Union (EU), compared to 21 per cent that said it should join the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union. This was the highest rating ever recorded. Similarly, 54 per cent said they would vote to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), compared to 28 per cent who would vote against joining.
Surprisingly, “war and terrorism” was only the sixth highest-rated concern in Ukraine in 2021. Ukrainians rated health-related risks (not including COVID-19) as their top concern. Transportation-related risks, crime and violence, economic concerns and financial hardship were more frequently cited than “war and terrorism”.
Additionally, levels of both life satisfaction and optimism about the future were on the rise in Ukraine. Optimism was assessed by measuring the percentage of people foreseeing the “best possible” life conditions for themselves five years in the future. Globally, optimism slightly deteriorated between 2019 and 2021, from 16.6 to 16.1 per cent. In contrast, in both Ukraine and Russia, the score markedly improved, with the Ukrainian score more than doubling and the Russian score increasing by roughly a third. In 2021, the score for both countries was 19.5, several points above the global average.
Overall life satisfaction also increased substantially, with the percentage of Ukrainians rating their lives positively, increasing from 28.7 per cent to 41.3 per cent. In Russia, overall life satisfaction also improved, though by a much smaller margin, rising from 42.2 per cent to 46.4 per cent.
However, the survey question to show the largest deterioration in Russia was concern over economicrelated issues, where the percentage of people rating this as their top issue rose nearly threefold between 2019 and 2021, indicating that Russians were becoming increasing concerned about the economy prior to the invasion.
In contrast to the perceptions of a positive future, Ukrainians’ faith in their government and elections deteriorated substantially between 2019 and 2021. Distrust in government rose from 45.1 to 68.2 per cent, while perceptions of dishonesty in elections rose from 36.1 to 61.1 per cent. The overall drop in Ukrainian confidence in the national government aligns with the generally declining trend in approval for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, which fell from a high of more than 70 per cent in September 2019 to just over 30 per cent in 2021.
One of the more striking results from the study was the lack of faith Ukrainians had in their government to deal with a disaster. In 2021, only 20.3 per cent of the population believed that the government could effectively manage a disaster. This compared to 47.6 per cent in Russia and 50.5 per cent globally. However, Ukrainian confidence in the military was relatively strong, with 67.4 per cent of citizens expressing confidence in the military. Russia had an even higher levels of confidence, with 72.5 per cent of the population expressing confidence in the military, though both of these levels were lower than the global average of 76.7 per cent.
Findings on the popularity of President Putin may give some insight into his thinking towards the war. In Russia, President Putin’s popularity has always been high. However, Putin’s highest popularity ratings occurred when Russia invaded Georgia and following the 2014 annexation of Crimea. A similar jump in approval occurred following the invasion of Ukraine, with his popularity rising from 63 to 83 per cent between November 2021 and May 2022.