Understanding social contract for citizen-state unity: based on rescore 2023 and score 2021 surveys

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Citizen-State Unity is a multi-dimensional normative framework that aims to capture the acceptance of state authority as legitimate and the existence of shared moral values and public motivations. This conceptual and analytical paper aims to do three things:

a. evaluate the state of Citizen-State Unity in Ukraine in 2023 compared to 2021 by building a measurable and quantifiable concept based on relevant literature and international good practices, using the (re)SCORE Ukraine datasets to diagnose strengths, weaknesses, and trends;

b. investigate the drivers of Citizen-State Unity and what they reveal about the nature of the Social Contract; and c. assess how the nature of the Social Contract has changed since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, offering a comparative evaluation using the reSCORE 2023 and the SCORE 2021 datasets to understand the impact of such far-reaching and traumatic events on citizen-state relations.
The paper builds the CSU concept based on seven dimensions drawn from SCORE Ukraine indicators, organised under three categories:

Sense of Political Community and Core Political Principles Category

1. Pluralistic Ukrainian Identity embodi es the notion of a shared political community.

1. Election Efficacy pertains to the perception of legality and conformity to rules, particularly regarding the democratic succession of power through elections, which is viewed as an effective mechanism for transferring power.

2. Support for Political Rights measures the fundamental backing for democratic principles, such as freedom of religion, expression, and peaceful protest, which manifest the people’s role as the ultimate source of authority.
   Perception of Authorities and Public Institutions Category 4. Ukrainian Authorities Care signifies the existence of a common interest between citizens and authorities, which is crucial for the perceived justifiability of the state’s rules.

3. Trust in Central Institutions promotes the belief that the country’s rules are justifiable, as they are established by trustworthy institutions.

4. Trust in Hromada Institutions reflects an object of legitimacy frequently encountered by citizens but usually overlooked in legitimacy studies.
   Quasi-Behavioural Civic Category 7. Sense of Civic Adherence evaluates quasi-behavioural aspects of CSU by examining the perception that fellow citizens voluntarily adhere to state authority through ethical behaviour, such as conscientious tax payment.

   The first three dimensions are diffuse and represent the nation- and system-de-fining aspects of Citizen-State Unity, deeply entrenched in societal beliefs and values. They are collectively referred to as the dimension on Sense of Political Community and Core Political Principles.
   The next three dimensions pertain to specific state entities and are grouped under the category of Perception of Authorities and Public Institutions. The seventh and the final dimension, Sense of Civic Adherence, extends beyond attitudes to encompass perceptions of behaviour at a specific level. This is labelled as the Quasi-Behavioural Civic Category. It is ‘quasi’ because it does not measure the actions of respondents per se but rather the perception of the actions of people in society.

   The analysis presented in Chapter 1of Citizen-State Unity in Ukraine reveals robust and consistent Sense of Political Community and Core Political Principles category.

   However, certain dimensions related to Perception of Authorities and Public Institutions and the quasi-behavioural Sense of Civic Adherence exhibit volatility and indicate areas for improvement.

   The analysis shows that efforts to strengthen the Perception of Authorities and Public Institutions category should prioritise the sense that authorities care for citizens and common good, and shared interest, ensuring that citizens feel heard, and their views being represented.

   The analysis presented in Chapter 2 looks at the drivers of Citizen-State Unity, in particular Perception of Authorities and Public Institutions. Comparing the effect size between the two time points, we observe that many expectations of citizens from the state remained the same between 2023 and 2021. These expectations include a. provision of personal security from violence in daily life and legal protection in the form of efficient justice services; b. effective service provision, health and economic security, and c. access and participation in political decisions at the local level. At the same time, the importance and influence of some of the expectations on Perception of Authorities and Public Institutions have changed. Two changes are particularly noteworthy. Firstly, there is an increased desire for inclusiveness and anti-corruption, with an emphasised expectation that high-level officials should prioritise the common good over private gains. Secondly, there is an increased emphasis on pursuing the European path.

   These trends indicate evolving societal expectations and suggest areas where policy efforts can be focused to strengthen the social contract and enhance Citizen-State Unity. In other words, to cultivate positive Perception of Authorities and Public Institutions, anticorruption and inclusiveness together with reforms and efforts for EU integration should be at the forefront of policy making. It should be further supported by effective service delivery and physical safety.

   The Sense of Political Community and Core Political Principles category represents the perception of the state as a political entity characterized by shared community, principles, and values. The analysis revealed key drivers of this dimension that include a. an optimistic outlook on the future and the future of the Ukrainian political community within the EU, b. critical thinking and intolerance towards corruption, c. satisfactory experience with locality, and d. human security. Horizontal relations, particularly the belief in the necessity of constructive dialogue and the mutual benefits of engaging in such dialogue with various political and geographic groups, are critical for the Sense of Political Community and Core Political Principles category. An important nuanced finding to add to our understanding of drivers is that while constructive dialogue with different groups became a more influential driver in 2023 compared to 2021, the influence of individual’s strong community relations and networks as a driver has diminished. This may be due to an increased harmonisation and prioritisation of seeing and relating to the whole nation rather than focusing on smaller settlement or community level networks and relations.

   The Sense of Civic Adherence shares more common drivers with the Perception of Authorities and Public Institutions category than the Sense of Political Community and Core Political Principles category. It is positively associated with a strong, protective, and inclusive state, as well as constructive horizontal relations and an optimistic outlook for the future. Furthermore, it tends to be more positive when individuals perceive fair treatment and do not heavily rely on traditional media sources like television.

   Thus, we observe that the diffuse and specific dimensions of Citizen-State Unity have different sources (i.e., drivers). While the specific dimensions including Trust in Central Institutions, Ukrainian Authorities Care, and Trust in Hromada Institutions are more closely linked to immediate social outcomes, the diffuse dimensions including Pluralistic Ukrainian Identity,

   Election Efficacy, and Support for Political Rights are more deeply rooted in personal attributes, experiences, and horizontal relations.

   The practical implications of the study’s findings on Citizen-State Unity and the Social Contract suggest strategic approaches for programme design and implementation. The findings emphasise the necessity of tailored strategies to address specific sources within the multi-dimensional framework. The study highlights the importance of strengthening particular dimensions, such as Trust in Central Institutions and the perception that Ukrainian Authorities Care about their citizens.
   The research advocates for coordinated efforts to foster trust through care, which can be achieved by effectively combating grand corruption, improving service provision, ensuring daily safety, and increasing citizen engagement in political decision-making at the local level. Additionally, the dimensions related to the Sense of Political Community and Core Political Principles would benefit from fostering constructive horizontal relations between various political and geographical groups.
   Furthermore, the study recommends embracing European integration, noting respondents’ strong preference for Ukraine’s future within the EU. Regional policies should be tailored to specific regions based on their scores and dynamics regarding key dimensions of Citizen-State Unity.

Strategic communication should focus on grounded, truthful messaging that reflects societal realities. The study also suggests using the operationalised dimensions as a tool for monitoring programme effects, thereby capturing this elusive social phenomenon of citizen-state unity and social contract.

Future research avenues include exploring citizens’ perceptions by public authorities and conducting multimodal discourse analysis.