Attachments
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
In the fourth year of the Russian Federation’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, hostilities remain concentrated along the front line in the northern, eastern, and southern oblasts of Ukraine, while more than an estimated three million people live under Russian occupation (SWP 09/2024; ISW 21/02/2025). Air, missile, and drone strikes continue to pose significant risks to civilians and critical infrastructure nationwide.
By the end of November 2024, Ukraine had more than 3.6 million IDPs, with displacement and mandatory evacuations continuing in frontline oblasts (IOM 17/01/2025). The country’s 2025 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan estimates that 12.7 million people in Ukraine will face humanitarian needs, down from 14.6 million in 2024 (OCHA 16/01/2025). That said, Ukrainians will continue to face uncertainty and hardship, primarily owing to the evolution of the war.
In February 2025, ACAPS convened context and humanitarian experts in two workshops in Kyiv to envisage how the context and humanitarian crisis may evolve in 2025. These workshops produced three scenarios, along with their regional implications, through the end of the year. The scenarios have been updated to reflect developments since the workshops (e.g. Ukraine’s withdrawal from Kursk oblast on 16 March). Still, the scenarios and their regional implications remain aligned with the outcomes of the workshops. They are summarised below and detailed in the report in order of likelihood.