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Ukraine - Key Message Update: National winter cereal production holds steady despite summer drought, September 2024

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In September 2024, the eastern front line remained a focal point, with heavy fighting reported in the Pokrovsk sector. In Russian-occupied territories, an escalation occurred on September 15 when a series of coordinated missile strikes targeted key agricultural hubs in the Donetsk region, destroying storage facilities and disrupting local food supplies. Additionally, on September 22, Russian forces imposed stricter curfews and road blockages in occupied areas, further limiting the movement of goods and humanitarian aid. Russia has also intensified its air campaign against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, with recent attacks targeting power plants in the northeastern Sumy region. On September 10, a major power plant in central Ukraine was damaged by a missile strike, leading to widespread power outages that affected food storage and processing facilities. The extensive damage to Ukraine’s energy network from months of attacks has led experts and officials to warn of unavoidable power cuts this winter. Russian air assaults on urban centers such as Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kryvyi Rih, and Poltava have also caused significant destruction, hitting apartment buildings and a military academy.

The escalating attacks in eastern Ukraine continue to impact civilians severely. Ongoing conflict has not only disrupted humanitarian operations but also caused new waves of displacement in Donetsk, Kherson, and Kharkiv oblasts. According to OCHA, humanitarian partners continue to provide essential support, such as food, cash transfers, farming inputs, water, and sanitation services. This comes as the cold winter weather is fast approaching. During the month of August, over 1.2 million people received solid fuel and repair materials for conflict-damaged homes, and other non-food essential items in preparation for the winter. As winter begins in October, populations of highest concern remain displaced families, non-displaced individuals living in substandard and war-damaged houses, returnee families, disabled persons, older persons, single-headed households, and those with chronic medical conditions.

Winter crop harvesting in Ukraine concluded two to three weeks earlier than usual due to unusually high temperatures. Wheat production reached around 21.5 million metric tons, close to last year's levels. While spring weather in Ukraine is typically favorable for crop production, this year’s abnormally low precipitation and high temperatures have led to severe water shortages, affecting over 65 percent of the country. However, national-level wheat and barley production is expected to remain below five-year average levels, largely linked to farmers switching to oilseeds, lower yields in calendar year 2024, and declines in area-planted related to the Russian occupation of territories in eastern Ukraine.

In September, Ukrainian grain exports remained near pre-war levels. As of September 18, 2024, Ukrainian grain exports have reached nearly 10 million tons since the beginning of the 2024/25 marketing year in July 2024. This represents a 52.3 percent increase compared to the same period in the previous marketing year. These trends indicate a recovery in Ukraine’s grain export capacity despite the ongoing challenges posed by the conflict. In September, a new system of minimum export prices for key grain and oilseed shipments was signed to combat ongoing price distortions in the domestic grain market and tax avoidance strategies that hurt the government’s key source of external revenue. Additionally, an agreement was reached on the maximum grain export volumes for the 2024/2025 marketing year, setting the limit for wheat and a mixture of wheat and rye at 16.2 million tons. This agreement aims to maintain domestic food security and affordability, with potential adjustments to the export limit in January 2025.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Ukraine Key Message Update September 2024: National winter cereal production holds steady despite summer drought, 2024.