IDMC estimates that there are at least 430,000 IDPs in Ukraine as of October 2014
IDPs have fled from two areas of Ukraine: over 19,000 have fled Crimea, while over 411,000 have fled eastern Ukraine. IDPs have been displaced to every region in the country, although Crimean IDPs have mainly fled to western areas while those from eastern Ukraine were mainly displaced within the east of the country (OCHA, 24 October 2014). The latest rise in the figure is due to new displacement as well as registration of previously displaced persons. The figure does not include an estimated 17,000 IDPs displaced within Crimea.
In Crimea, IDPs began to flee in March 2014 prior to a referendum in which the Crimean authorities reported more than 96 per cent of voters favoured the republic becoming part of Russia. A second wave of displacement followed Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Many pro-Ukraine activists, journalists, officials as well as Crimean Tatars, an important ethnic minority in the peninsula, fled Crimea for fear or because of threats, intimidation and discrimination on account of their ethnicity or political opinions (UNHCR, 18 August 2014).
In eastern Ukraine, displacement is a result of the conflict between the Ukrainian army and pro-Russian separatists aligned with the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. The vast majority of IDPs fled the area after June as fighting in the east intensified following referendums on self-rule and stepping up of the Ukrainian army’s so-called Anti-Terrorist Operation in May 2014. People continue to flee despite a ceasefire agreement signed on 5 September.
IDPs have settled across the country, however the eastern regions of Kharkiv (110,800), Donetsk (59,200), Zaporozhia (33,700), Dnipropetrovsk (31,200), Luhansk (28,000) accommodate around two thirds of all IDPs population (UNHCR, 16 October 2014). As of 8 September, 32 per cent of IDPs were children, 14 per cent were elderly or people with disabilities and two thirds of adult IDPs are women (OHCHR, 8 October 2014). Many men have stayed behind to look after their properties (UNHCR, 18 August 2014).
The Ministry of Social Policy launched a central IDP registration system on 15 October 2014. Prior to that, the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) was the only organisation to collect and publish estimates of the number of IDPs in Ukraine. The figure reported here represents people who have approached the authorities or NGOs with requests for assistance. UNHCR collects this data from each region, and verifies and validates it by engaging with IDPs, local authorities and NGOs.
Some IDPs may have been counted more than once as they move around the regions. However, UNHCR estimates the number of IDPs is likely to be two to three times higher, as many IDPs are believed not to have come forward to the authorities or NGOs. This is due to fear of reprisals against their families, that their property will be confiscated or because they have the means to address their situation on their own (UNHCR, 21 July 2014). Others lack information on available assistance, do not have the documents required to access assistance or still hope their displacement will be temporary.
IDPs from the east began returning to their homes in July as separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk regions withdrew from their positions following gains made by the Ukrainian army. Additional returns occurred following the 5 September ceasefire agreement. Some returnees collected belongings, checked on their property and left again, while others remained (OHCHR, 8 October 2014). There is no reliable estimate of the number of returned IDPs, nor is there data on return to Crimea.
IDMC uses only the most credible accurate information available. Notwithstanding the caveats and limitations of the source information described above, IDMC believes this to be the best data and is grateful to the partners for sharing it.