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Pathways for Regular Migration: Perceptions of Migrant Workers and Recovery in Ukraine - July 2024 [EN/UK]

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INTRODUCTION

The full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has had dramatic consequences for the demographic and economic situation of the country, leaving Ukraine’s prospects for recovery at risk. The war has exacerbated demographic challenges such as low fertility rates and emigration of Ukrainians abroad. An estimated 6,483,500 Ukrainians are currently displaced abroad. Younger population groups were most likely to have left the country, particularly women with children, with over 30 per cent of Ukrainian refugees in Europe estimated to be under 18 years old and 52 per cent between 18 and 59 years old. Factors such as mobilisation may also impact upon population growth in the future. According to the national census, Ukraine’s population was 48.5 million in 2001. It is projected to decrease by half, reaching 25.2 million by 2051.

The war has also dramatically affected Ukraine’s economy, impacting industries and businesses’ ability to operate, causing large-scale displacement both internally and abroad, as well as resulting in the mobilisation of working age Ukrainians. The resultant labour shortage was identified by Ukrainian employers as the primary challenge they face, ahead of security risks and access to capital. The Ministry of Economy and the ILO estimates that between 4.5 and 8.6 million additional workers are needed over the next ten years in order to achieve the Government’s GDP growth targets. In an eventual post-war scenario of reconstruction and economic recovery, labour needs are set to grow significantly.

Pathways for regular migration are an essential component of Ukraine’s recovery, addressing labour shortages and demographic challenges. The demographic and economic strategies under development by the Government of Ukraine identify the need to attract Ukrainians living abroad back to Ukraine, support women to enter the labour market, and support IDPs to adapt to the labour market demands in their area of displacement, amongst others. While these remain crucial components of Ukraine’s recovery, addressing the current and anticipated labour gap will also require a broader set of instruments and strategies related to immigration.

IOM is supporting the Government of Ukraine to develop and update national strategies on migration, demography, and employment. To support the development of these policies in Ukraine, the potential challenges and opportunities of labour immigration in Ukraine must be assessed and regularly updated, as the context changes. This thematic brief provides an evidence base for the development of migration policies and interventions, providing data-driven insights on perceptions of - and challenges to - labour immigration among the general population. The brief provides data on the experience of Ukrainians with migrants prior to the full-scale invasion, how the general population perceives the arrival of migrant workers in the coming years; and identifies potential barriers to integration or sources of tensions, which require a comprehensive response to facilitate safe migration and social cohesion.