Locked but Loaded: Firearms Possession Dynamics in Ukraine (Situation Update September 2024)

Although overall crime victimization in Ukraine has remained relatively stable following Russia’s full-scale invasion, firearms are increasingly more likely to be used in crime. In late 2023, 11 per cent of surveyed victims of crime said a firearm was used in the crime incidents they experienced during the previous 12 months, up from 6 per cent a year earlier.

Locked but Loaded: Firearms Possession Dynamics in Ukraine*—*second of the Survey’s Situation Updates series on firearms possession and proliferation in Ukraine—builds on a series of general population surveys carried out between 2011 and December 2023. This Situation Update focuses on the evolving dynamics of firearms possession in Ukraine. It is is divided into two main sections: contextual background on perceptions of insecurity, the role of weapons, and the specific situation of combatants and veterans; and an examination of civilian firearms possession, including public perceptions of these weapons, civilians’ access to them, and public awareness and use of the new Unified Register of Weapons.

Key findings

• The household firearms possession rate in Ukraine has been stable since the 2022 Russian invasion. At that time, 6 per cent of households reported possessing firearms, which is similar to the 5.6 per cent that did so in a more recent survey carried out at the end of 2023. In fact, in the sampled households the aggregate number of firearms kept at home decreased by 15 per cent during the same period.
• During this period, crime victimization levels were only slightly above pre-2022 levels; however, when crimes occur, firearms are increasingly more likely to be used. In late 2023, 11 per cent of all victims said they encountered a firearm during the crime incidents they experienced during the previous 12 months, up from 6 per cent a year earlier.
• Findings from the latest survey reveal that at the end of 2023, nearly four out of ten firearm-owning households were unaware of the Unified Register of Weapons (39 per cent), which was launched in June 2023.
• About three-quarters (74 per cent) of respondents whose households owned firearms and knew about the register said all their weapons were registered. Among all survey respondents who reported firearms possession at home, however, only 45 per cent indicated that their firearms were registered.
• The war is resulting in an increase in the population of soldiers and veterans, who as a whole tend to adopt distinct attitudes towards firearm ownership. For instance, 31 per cent of respondents with combat experience (pre- or post-2022) reported a firearm at their home and 18 per cent declared owning a firearm personally—compared with only about 6 and 3 per cent, respectively, for the general population.