ReliefWeb

CONTEXT

At the end of December 2020, Ukraine had recorded more than 1 million people testing positive to COVID-19 and was experiencing an exponential rise in the number of confirmed cases. According to a report published by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the current crisis may lead to the worst economic depression Ukraine has experienced in decades, with sectors such as manufacturing, retail, trade, transportation, exports, and remittances affected by the global lockdown measures.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) estimates that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Ukraine will contract by 8% this year, while the average monthly salary will decrease from 12,500 Ukrainian Hryvnia (UAH) at pre-COVID-19 projections to UAH 10,700 post-COVID-19.

At a local level, the COVID-19 related restrictions impact the most vulnerable groups. Among others, small scale farmers, migrant, and informal workers often have their work hindered by movement restrictions, while road closures cut access to markets for their products.

Ukraine generally had avoided establishing nation-wide restrictions, instead implementing an “adaptive quarantine” in virus hotspots However, starting with November 2020, the country has switched towards a nation-wide approach regarding restrictions, with nonessential businesses being closed during weekends. More stringent measures such as week-day closures of non-essential stores, curfew for traveling between regions or border closures could turn into economic shocks, in addition to the instability caused by the uncertain nature of the health crisis.The COVID-19 pandemic is capable of accentuating the unstable dynamics in Eastern Ukraine. Assessments done by REACH identified that the ongoing conflict disconnected settlements in Government Controlled Areas (GCA) from urban centers in NonGovernment Controlled Areas (NGCA). Despite some economic reorientation in recent years, GCA residents in the periphery of NGCA cities still have difficulties in accessing critical services and markets, predominantly healthcare and employment opportunities, with repercussions on household (HH) economic security. While COVID-19 is expected to affect the whole of Ukraine, Eastern Ukraine is at a higher risk due to a more vulnerable population after years of conflict.

Using data collected through the 2020 REACH Multi-Sector Needs Assessment (MSNA) in the GCA of Ukraine, REACH is seeking to explore how indicators related to food consumption and livelihood coping strategies varied between different types of households six months into the COVID-19 pandemic. Household data collection for the MSNA took place between 30 July 2020 and 15 August 2020. A total of 1,617 households were interviewed, covering the Donetsk and Luhansk government controlled areas within 20 km of the contact line (see Map 1). For details, please consult the methodology section at the end of this factsheet.

This product is the first part of a wider assessment which aims to measure the economic resilience of households living in GCA in eastern Ukraine over the 2020 - 2021 period. The assessment will be built around the Household Economy Approach (HEA), a livelihood-based framework used to assess how livelihoods would be affected by acute or medium-term economic or ecological change in order to devise planning interventions that will support the most vulnerable groups.