Brief: Displacement Trends Analysis, Ukraine - June 2022


Key findings

• As of June 23, 6.25 million people were reported as internally displaced (IDPs) within Ukraine, and KIs in REACH-assessed settlements reporting new IDP arrivals in all oblasts between 2-16 May. Estimating displacement figures has reportedly been challenging due to the changing situation of the war.

• Western oblasts continue to host a large share of IDPs. 5,670 collective sites have so far been identified across Ukraine, mostly in educational and publicly owned facilities. Nevertheless, low occupancy and hence collective site closures suggest that many IDPs are residing in private housing, likely requiring a different response from humanitarian actors. IDP arrivals and returns to urban areas, such as Kyiv city, suggest rising needs in urban centres.

• Another wave of displacement from eastern regions was reported over the past month, despite officially-supported transport and exit routes becoming less available. Evacuation trains from eastern oblasts decreased in late May, potentially due to decrease in passenger demand, closure of railway stations, and many people having already left the region. Access to transport remains difficult for vulnerable groups.• Displacement and returns were reported in non-government-controlled areas (NGCAs), as well as movement barriers out of these areas. As humanitarian needs have reportedly been rising rapidly, humanitarian access and security in NGCAs are key concerns.

• Between 17 March and 6 May, 118,444 people were reportedly evacuated via government-approved evacuations (green corridors). However, green corridors out of conflictaffected areas and/or NGCAs have ceased since 6 May. Restrictions of movement out of nongovernment-controlled areas are a key concern.

• In late May, returns to and within Ukraine increased considerably, and continued to rise in late June at a slower rate. Common destinations were Northern oblasts, Kyiv city, and Eastern oblasts. Frequently cited reasons for return include pull factors such as family reunification and perception of safety, and push factors include employment, accommodation, access to social security and assistance, and access to documentation. Factors that remain difficult to assess include the estimation of return numbers, length of intended returns, provision of assistance to returnees, and the safety of return areas.

• The significant proportion of people returning to conflict-affected areas, or people returning despite security concerns, indicates that other push factors could outweigh security concerns and push IDPs to return. Further data collection could help indicate whether additional humanitarian support during displacement could contribute to mitigating push factors leading to returns to unsafe areas.