Attachments
Context Analysis
As Ukraine enters its fourth year of full-scale war and the eleventh year of conflict, the humanitarian crisis remains severe and prolonged. The latter half of 2024 saw intensified hostilities, mass displacement, and worsening access constraints, leaving 12.7 million people in urgent need of assistance. Mandatory evacuations in Donetska, Kharkivska, and Sumska oblasts displaced 3.6 million people, while ongoing bombardments continue to damage infrastructure and destabilize communities. Attacks on energy facilities in December 2024 further compounded the crisis, leading to power outages that have left millions without essential services, particularly affecting older persons, displaced populations, and people with disabilities.
Veterans now constitute a rapidly growing vulnerable group, with approximately 850,000 ex- combatants struggling with severe physical and psychological injuries, affecting their families and communities. Between 4 and 8 million people may be indirectly impacted by the challenges veterans face, creating significant social and economic pressures, including heightened risks of domestic violence and protection concerns for women and children.
The demographic breakdown of affected populations highlights distinct vulnerabilities, with women, children, older persons, and persons with disabilities disproportionately impacted. Women-headed households face heightened economic insecurity, while 1.5 million children are at risk of PTSD and other mental health conditions. Older persons, particularly those in high-risk areas, struggle with isolation and limited medical care, while persons with disabilities face severe access barriers to basic services. Gender-based violence remains a serious concern, as women and girls are at heightened risk of exploitation and abuse, exacerbated by their increased caregiving responsibilities.
The ongoing displacement crisis is further aggravated by declining international aid, forcing many Ukrainians returning from neighboring countries into unsafe conditions. Short-term consequences include rising humanitarian needs, inadequate shelter, and worsening mental health crises, particularly in the face of harsh winter conditions. Long-term impacts are expected to be severe, with nearly 10 million people projected to develop mental health conditions, chronic poverty affecting 9 million individuals, and war-related destruction costs estimated at $152 billion. The conflict has also disrupted education and employment, delaying Ukraine’s economic recovery and deepening long-term socio-economic challenges. In this evolving and uncertain context, a sustained and adaptive humanitarian response is critical, balancing immediate relief with localized resilience- building and community-led recovery efforts.
The humanitarian crisis in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts continues to deteriorate due to escalating hostilities, mass displacement, and worsening socio-economic conditions. Between May and November 2024, heavy attacks on civilian areas triggered widespread evacuations, leaving vulnerable groups—children, single female caregivers, older people, and persons with disabilities—struggling to access essential services amid active conflict. The ongoing Government- led evacuation mandates and continued hostilities in 2025 are expected to exacerbate displacement, infrastructure damage, and humanitarian needs.
Prolonged displacement has severely limited access to basic services such as healthcare, shelter, and food, particularly in rural areas that receive less assistance. Families face rising living costs, income loss, and depleted savings, while smallholder farmers struggle with disrupted agricultural production and soaring input costs. Lessons from the UKR221 Appeal highlight the need for targeted support for rural and marginalized communities, as they often lack adequate aid.
Shelter conditions remain dire, with war-damaged apartments and overcrowded collective centers in urgent need of repairs and WASH rehabilitation to ensure access to safe water, sanitation, and hygiene services. The psychological toll of war is significant, with widespread trauma affecting IDPs, children, and veterans. Families grieving losses and struggling to secure their children’s education face long-term instability.
As 2025 unfolds, the crisis is expected to deepen, necessitating an adaptive, long-term response that prioritizes protection, essential services, and resilience-building, ensuring that both displaced and war-affected populations receive sustained support.