Attachments
INTRODUCTION
In September 2024, ACAPS’ Ukraine Analysis Hub published a briefing note on the conflict and humanitarian situation around Pokrovsk in Ukraine’s eastern Donetska oblast. The front line here has since shifted, with Russian forces expanding operations since February toward a potential envelopment or encirclement of Kostiantynivka, another critical node in Ukraine’s defensive line in eastern Ukraine. This report updates ACAPS’ earlier analysis, outlining anticipated developments and their humanitarian implications over the next three months.
Russian advances toward Pokrovsk have stalled, prompting a shift to flanking tactics in that direction. Meanwhile, increased focus on Kostiantynivka has introduced new challenges for both military and humanitarian operations. As the front lines expand, more settlements – and civilians remaining there – face conflict-related risks and limited access to basic services. Humanitarian access is increasingly constrained, with growing risks to both civilians and responders – such as heightened safety risks along key military and humanitarian logistical routes due to Russian drone activity
This update analyses these critical developments, their potential evolution, and the anticipated impacts on humanitarian needs and access. Escalating risks and an evolving operational landscape in the coming three months point to the need for a sustained humanitarian response given the potential for significant population displacement, service disruptions, and reduced humanitarian access in this region.