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SUMMARY
Sumska oblast, in the north of Ukraine, has been facing a growing humanitarian crisis since August 2024. Conflict has escalated following Ukrainian forces’ crossborder incursion into the adjacent Kursk oblast in Russia, which began in the same month. Sustained high levels of Russian attacks have persisted since. Heightened insecurity has heavily constrained people’s access to basic and essential services, such as healthcare, protection services, banking, communications, and transport, particularly in the most crisis-affected areas – i.e. those within 20km of the border. More communities have received evacuation orders (generally voluntary but mandatory for children), with more than 38,500 people leaving unsafe areas in Sumska oblast by the end of October, most of whom had evacuated since August. At the same time, NGOs have faced additional access and operational constraints while responding to the impacts of the crisis.
In the next six months, the situation in Sumska oblast is expected to deteriorate further as hostilities in Kursk oblast and attacks on Sumska oblast persist. The sustained intensity of Russian attacks in Sumska oblast (as elsewhere, in particular across frontline oblasts) – in part enabled by Russia’s military production capabilities and supply rates of missiles and shells – will likely remain similar to current levels, but the impacts of such attacks will worsen with the gaps in Ukraine’s defence. Sumskyi and Shostynskyi raions, already the most affected by air attacks, will likely continue to be at the most risk of continued attacks and damage. Sustained Russian attacks, including on civilian infrastructure, will continue to drive converging humanitarian needs, such as shelter, health, livelihoods, and protection.
Sumska oblast also faces heavy damage to its energy infrastructure, made worse by the escalation since August 2024. Continued attacks on the energy infrastructure during winter will likely result in unplanned power outages, compounding the impact of pre-existing energy deficits during the cold season and severely disrupting access to essential services, such as heating services that rely on uninterrupted power. The lack of authorities’ capacity to respond in Sumska oblast will further contribute to widening persistent humanitarian gaps, particularly if winter conditions and insecurity disrupt responders’ access to affected areas. Unable to meet their needs elsewhere, displaced people are at risk of moving back to their homes, often in unsafe areas subject to evacuation orders.