ACAPS Thematic Report: Ukraine - Energy infrastructure attacks: updated outlook and impact during the 2024–2025 cold season, 19 February 2025 [EN/UK]

SUMMARY

As previously anticipated in the original outlook, Russian forces have continued to target Ukraine’s energy infrastructure during the 2024–2025 cold season, including by launching countrywide combined missile and drone attacks frequently targeting Ivano-Frankivska, Kharkivska, Kyivska, and Lvivska oblasts. Rolling blackouts were reintroduced across the country the day after these combined attacks resumed, lasting from mid-November 2024 until the energy situation stabilised in late December. The daily sessions ranged between 4–12 hours in total. The combined attacks resulted in additional localised emergency power outages, most frequently affecting Kyivska, Dnipropetrovska, and then Donetska oblast. The worst-case scenario of prolonged 20-hour countrywide daily blackouts did not materialise and is no longer anticipated, mainly thanks to energy production capacity improving by 3GW mitigated by factors such as a mild winter between December 2024 and January 2025 and governmental and international mitigation efforts to reduce energy demand and counter the impact of the attacks.

Russian missile and drone production capacity remains significant. As such, attacks targeting all types of energy infrastructure remain highly likely in the remaining months of the cold season, mainly through regular countrywide mass drone attacks followed by countrywide combined missile and drone attacks, as well as more localised missile attacks. Countrywide rolling blackouts remain likely, but if reintroduced, their length will depend mainly on the extent of the damage from direct hits and the tactics used. A somewhat improved air defence capacity will help Ukraine mitigate the impact of these attacks, but gaps remain and will continue exposing the energy infrastructure to potential damage. Freezing temperatures in the remaining winter period will continue to be a potential aggravating factor, while a warmer- than-usual spring forecast will reduce the energy demand. The US funding suspension, however, adds additional setbacks for improving the resilience of the energy system against future attacks and could delay annual infrastructure repairs.

Heavily populated cities and urban areas will continue to be exposed to unplanned large- scale power disruptions when directly targeted in attacks on energy infrastructure. Gaps in power back-up support will continue to affect water supply and heating facilities, IDP shelters, geriatric care centres, schools, and hospitals and smaller medical facilities. Despite significant support to the health sector, power outages will continue to affect medical procedures. Sumska oblast will be the most at risk in the remaining winter period compared to other assessed cold spots owing to persisting response gaps. Power outages will compound the impacts of war on older people, IDPs, people with disabilities, and those in frontline areas. The attacks and ensuing power disruptions will continue to result in negative socioeconomic impacts in the remaining cold season, particularly affecting small and micro businesses and households. Despite the gaps and challenges, various governmental mitigation measures and international and humanitarian support will help mitigate the negative impacts of the attacks.