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INTRODUCTION
Uganda, a low-income country in East Africa, is home to 1.8 million refugees as of January 2025, making it the largest refugee-hosting country on the continent. The majority of refugees originate from South Sudan (54%) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (31%).4 Most refugees reside in 13 refugee-hosting districts across West Nile and Southwest Uganda, where they live alongside host communities in open villages known as settlements.
Nyumanzi refugee settlement, established in 2014, is densily populated and the largest of 19 individual settlements that together are commonly referred to as the Adjumani settlement in Northern Uganda. Nyumanzi is located 40 kilometers from Adjumani town and 17km from the South Sudan border. As of January 2025, Nyumanzi hosts 47,342 refugees, primarily from South Sudan.
Despite Africa’s minimal contribution to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, Uganda remains highly vulnerable to climate change. The Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) ranked Uganda as the 14th most vulnerable country and one of the least prepared (163rd out of 182) to respond to climate-related challenges. Uganda's vulnerability is heightened by widespread poverty and a strong reliance on climate-sensitive sectors, including agriculture, water, fisheries, tourism, and forestry.
Since the 1960s, average temperatures in Uganda have risen by 1.3°C. Daily temperature records from that period indicate an increase in the frequency of hot days, with an even more pronounced rise in the occurrence of hot nights. Although defining trends in extreme rainfall conditions is challenging due to data limitations and seasonal variability, droughts in Uganda have become more frequent over the past 60 years. In particular, the western, northern, and northeastern regions have experienced increasingly frequent and prolonged drought conditions over the past two decades. Flooding has become increasingly frequent, primarily driven by more intense rainfall.
These climate trends have had severe localised impacts, including in refugee-hosting areas such as Nyumanzi Settlement. In September 2023, rain induced floods displaced over 4,000 refugees and host community members. The following month, in October 2023, authorities in Dzaipi sub-county, where the settlement is located, urged the government to relocate the settlement due to recurring severe flooding, which had persisted for three consecutive years. However, it remains unclear whether the proposed relocation was intended as a temporary measure or a permanent solution, as no official resettlement has been carried out to date.
Adjumani District, where Nyumanzi is located, experiences temperatures reaching 33°C (with anecdotal evidence pointing at 36.6°C) and is projected to face the highest category of compounded heat risk between 2080 and 2099, making it highly vulnerable to extreme heat. Prolonged dry spells and resulting water scarcity were highlighted by the population during the August 2024 scoping exercise and subsequent data collection. Projected precipitation and temperature trends, combined with existing infrastructure limitations and population growth, indicate a high likelihood of increasing water stress across much of Uganda. Forecasts suggest declines in both surface and groundwater supplies, along with reduced groundwater recharge due to decreasing precipitation.
This report provides a detailed description of the methodology and key findings from various assessments conducted in Nyumanzi Settlement between 2019 and 2024 to evaluate climate-related hazards and their impacts on refugees and host communities. The report is structured into the following sections:
- Flood Assessment – This section analyses flood patterns in Nyumanzi Settlement using Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data and the UN-SPIDER methodology to assess flood extent and frequency from 2019 to 2023. It identifies flood-prone zones, evaluates flood impacts on settlements and agricultural lands, and estimates affected populations using geospatial analysis.
2. Drought Assessment – This section evaluates drought severity and vegetation stress across Nyumanzi using the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) for the driest year, 2022, identified through CHIRPS Daily Precipitation data (2014–2024). It also incorporates the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to analyse precipitation deficits during the same period. The analysis provides insights into drought impacts on agriculture, water availability, and livelihoods.
3. Land Surface Temperature (LST) – This section examines LST variations for the hottest months during the last year (January to March 2024) using Landsat 8 data, highlighting extreme heat zones across Nyumanzi Settlement and surrounding areas. It identifies temperature hotspots in built-up areas and assesses heat stress risks affecting refugees and host communities.
4. Climate Change Trends and Projections – This section models historical (1970–2000) and future (2041–2060) climate trends using WorldClim data under two scenarios: SSP1-2.6 (low emissions, strong climate action) and SSP3-7.0 (high emissions, weaker climate policies). The projections indicate rising temperatures, declining precipitation, and increased climate risks such as water scarcity, agricultural stress, and extreme heat exposure.