Second season harvest supporting Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes in most areas
Key Messages
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Rainfall at the end of the August-November second rainy season was slightly below average in most areas, though in some northern and eastern areas heavy rainfall caused landslides and crop damage. Overall, total seasonal rainfall was sufficient to support normal crop development and despite some crop losses from heavy rainfall and Fall Armyworm, the harvest is average in most regions. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected in bimodal areas through May 2018. In most areas of Karamoja, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will persist over the same time period.
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Uganda currently hosts roughly 1,037,000 refugees from South Sudan, and an estiamted 1,800,000 South Sudanese refugees are expected by the end of 2018, according to the revised planning figure by the Uganda Integrated Refugee Response Plan. Through a combination of food from the ongoing harvest and humanitarian assistance, most refugees are Stressed (IPC Phase 2!). Funding shortfalls are expected in January and refugees would likely be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the absence of assistance.
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The ongoing second season harvest and release of first season stocks have supported staple food price declines, around 5-15 percent, between September and October. Household food access has improved seasonally as a result. In most key markets, staple food prices are similar to the same time last year, but are 10-30 percent higher than the five-year average. In Soroti, for example, the retail price of maize is 7 percent above last year and 25 percent above average. Staple food prices are expected to continue declining seasonally through January, but are likely to remain slightly above average.