FEWS NET expects 1.0-2.49 million people to need food assistance in Uganda, peaking between April-June, the typical lean period ahead of the first season harvest. The populations of greatest concern are refugees and poor households in the Karamoja Region. Refugees’ access to food is constrained by their limited access to farmland and to income-generating opportunities, exacerbated by a constrained humanitarian environment. In Karamoja, food stocks are expected to be exhausted following below-average production in late 2025. The WFP reported in late March that current funding will be insufficient to fully address expected needs through 2026, citing a shortfall of 47 million USD.
The refugee presence in Uganda continues to increase, driven by ongoing conflicts in the region. In March 2026, the country hosted nearly 2,000,000 refugees and asylum seekers —the most in Africa — primarily from South Sudan (52 percent) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (33 percent). Assistance has declined since mid-2025 amid funding shortfalls. Using a differentiated assistance model (introduced in 2023, with numerous changes since), WFP currently provides new arrivals with three months of assistance meeting 60 percent of needs, after which assistance is based on vulnerability groups from Category 1 (most vulnerable) to Category 3 (least vulnerable). However, Category 1 and 2 assistance was reduced from 60 and 30 percent of food needs in late 2024 to 40 and 22 percent of food needs, respectively. Meanwhile, the population receiving no assistance has increased sharply: in late 2024, roughly 4 percent (55,000 people) were not receiving any assistance, while as of May 2025, 1.1 million out of over 1.6 million (more than 63 percent) were receiving no assistance.
Staple food prices as of mid-March were near or above five-year averages. Maize prices were similar to the five-year average and to March last year, while bean prices were similar to the five-year average but approximately 20 percent higher than in March last year. Prices are generally expected to rise between March and September due to high demand from neighboring countries (Kenya and South Sudan) and increased fuel costs, despite anticipated average harvests in June-July in bimodal areas and from August-September in Karamoja.
Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb due to the conflict in the Middle East are squeezing global fuel supplies, driving higher transport costs for international shipping. While Uganda is a regional producer of key cereals such as maize and sorghum, it imports wheat, rice, cooking oil, and processed foods. Increased costs for these imported goods will likely be passed along to consumers in the near term. Price increases for domestically produced foods will be more modest and occur on a delayed timeline. Fuel supplies within Uganda are currently stable, keeping local transportation costs near average, but will begin to increase as current fuel stocks become depleted and must be replaced at the new, higher rates. The disruptions to fuel and shipments are also driving higher costs and causing delays in the delivery of humanitarian assistance.
The conflict in the Middle East is also disrupting access globally to inorganic fertilizers through cancellations and delays in shipping or otherwise higher prices, but impacts among most Ugandan households are expected to be modest. The Uganda Bureau of Statistics estimates only 9-10 percent of Ugandan households use inorganic fertilizers, and typically only small quantities; however, some wealthy households growing large quantities of cash crops such as tobacco, tea, coffee, cocoa, and sugarcane use more. Most households will therefore remain relatively unaffected, though reduced fertilizer application will result in below-average harvests of these cash crops, which will reduce income-generating opportunities from agricultural labor for some poor households. Additionally, because most households consume primarily maize, sorghum, and beans — which are produced domestically with minimal inorganic fertilizer — the increase in fertilizer prices is not expected to notably increase input costs for these staple foods which would be passed on to consumers.
In Karamoja, below-average crop and livestock production from September-December 2025 is driving an early start to the lean season and, in some areas, is increasing migration of households to surrounding districts in search of food and opportunities for work. However, an early and above-average start to the March-May rains bodes well for the largely pastoral region. The rains in Karamoja began 10-20 days early in most parts of the region, and cumulative rainfall reached 150-200 percent of average in March. Rainfall is expected to return closer to average levels from late April-May, then tilt to below-average from June-August, according to ensemble forecast models. However, the early and above-average start to the season and anticipated near-average cumulative rainfall are expected to drive improvements in crop and livestock production through improved pasture and water access and, therefore, increased access to food starting in June.
In bimodal areas, anticipated average March-May rains are expected to drive near-average production among smallholder farmers and support modest seasonal improvement in food access starting in June with the beginning of the first season harvest. However, above-average prices for staple foods, driven by high demand from neighboring countries and above-average local transportation costs due to globally elevated fuel prices, will weaken purchasing power, especially for poor households, likely driving an overall deterioration in food access by September. The anticipated transition to El Ñino between May and September is likely to support an above-average start in September for the September-December second season rains.
