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Overview
In Uganda, Karamoja is the most vulnerable region to climate-related shocks and hazards which significantly contribute to persistent low levels of food and livestock production. The 2023/24 crop production season yields were below average due to a series of prolonged dry spells which reduced availability of pastures for livestock and induced migration to the neighboring districts. For the current analysis period (March – July 2024), which corresponds to the lean season, all the nine districts of Karamoja region are classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis), with 45 percent of the population analysed (600,000 people) facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). An estimated 84,000 people (6 percent of the population analysed) are classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) while 516,000 people (39 percent of the population analysed) are classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). Compared to historical trends, the region’s food insecurity situation continues to increase with the population in IPC Phase 3 or above increasing from 27 percent in June 2020, to 30 percent in April 2021, 41 percent in April 2022, 45 percent in May 2023 and 45 percent in 2024.
During the projection period, the food insecurity situation is expected to improve due to seasonal gains and projected production, however, the event of the forecasted La Nina might impact the situation negatively. Between (August 2024 – February 2025), the population in IPC Phase 3 or above is expected to reduce from 600,000 people (45 percent of the population analysed) to 408,000 (30 percent of the population analysed). Around 27,000 people (2 percent of the population analysed will be in Phase 4 and 382,000 people (28 percent of the population analysed) will be in Phase 3. Karenga is the only district projected to improve from Phase 3 to IPC Phase 2 (Stressed), whereas the rest will remain in Phase 3, though the projection period is showing a significant deterioration compared to previous years.
Overall, the nutrition situation in Karamoja shows an estimated 112,270 cases of children aged 6-59 months and 8,980 pregnant or breastfeeding women (PBW) across the Karamoja region are expected to suffer from acute malnutrition and will need treatment between March 2024 and February 2025. Of the 112,270 children, 90,551 are moderate acute malnutrition cases and 21,719 are severe acute malnutrition cases. The total number of children in need of treatment has increased by 25.7 percent from 89,000 in 2023 to 11,2270 in 2024. Amudat and Kaabong districts were classified in IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical) whereas Karenga, Kotido and Moroto districts were classified in IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious) while Abim, Nabilatuk, Nakapiripirit and Napak districts, were classified in IPC AMN Phase 2 (Alert).
A marked increase in acute malnutrition was observed in Karenga, Amudat and Moroto districts in 2024 compared to a similar period in 2023. High acute malnutrition in the Karamoja sub-region was attributed to inadequate food consumption, disease, inadequate water and poor sanitation and high female headed households associated with high workload and low economic power especially in rural households. In the districts of Amudat, Kaabong, Karenga, Kotido and Moroto, the overall classification is IPC Phase 3 or above for both acute food insecurity and acute malnutrition. This is mainly due to high food gaps leading to consumption of food that is poor in quality and quantity. Anemia and tuberculosis remain a public health concern in Karamoja. High mortality among children less than five years was observed in Moroto at 4.94 (2.67-8.84); Kaabong at 2.69 (1.47-4.83) and Nabilatuk at 2.01 (0.89-4.42). Generally, the acute malnutrition situation in Karamoja remains very concerning and requires urgent interventions to manage and prevent further deterioration in acute malnutrition and contributing factors expected in the projection period of June to October 2024.