Uganda Food Security Outlook Update, October 2019 to May 2020
Below-average production improves Karamoja outcomes to Stressed (IPC Phase 2)
• In bimodal areas, food stocks from the first season harvest and declining market prices have improved food access for the poor. Meanwhile, aboveaverage rainfall since June has prompted early planting for the second season. In most areas, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to prevail through May 2020. However, heavy rainfall is leading to flooding and waterlogging in low-lying areas and mudslides in mountainous areas. Substantial risks are expected to persist through November given a forecast of significantly aboveaverage rainfall.
• In Karamoja, food supplies from the unimodal and first season bimodal harvests are improving food availability and firewood/charcoal-to-sorghum terms of trade. In southern and central areas, the harvest is completed or ongoing and outcomes have improved to Stressed (IPC Phase 2). In Kaabong, where the harvest has just commenced, reliance on market purchases and below-average incomes are sustaining Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. These outcomes are expected to persist until the harvest improves conditions to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in November.
• According to UNHCR/OPM, Uganda now hosts a total of 1,347,360 refugees and asylum seekers. Arrival rates have declined in 2019, driven largely by the relative peace in South Sudan and reduced displacement risk in DRC. Ongoing humanitarian food assistance is expected to support Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes in these populations through December, when anticipated ration cuts between January and May will likely lead to Crisis (IPC Phase 3).