Although average to above-average rainfall in May and June has improved crop growth conditions, the first season bimodal harvest and Karamoja harvest are still expected to be late and below average. In bimodal areas, crop production deficits are expected to be 30-50 percent below average due to early season losses, reduced area planted, and Fall Army Worm incidence. In Karamoja, ploughing and planting are still ongoing, but reduced area planted is expected to drive below-average production. Reduced food availability, rising staple food prices, and declining terms of trade continue to strain household food and income sources. Through September, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist in northeastern and and eastern bimodal areas of concern and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected to persist in Karamoja.
In Karamoja, household food and income sources are expected to remain significantly below average through September. Current food consumption gaps and higher-than-normal acute malnutrition prevalence remain consistent with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. In Kotido and Kaabong, it is likely that some individuals or households may be experiencing more severe outcomes. The below-average harvest is expected to improve food security outcomes to Stressed (IPC Phase 2), but most households will deplete their food stocks early and Crisis (ICP Phase 3) is anticipated to re-emerge by January.
In refugee settlements, humanitarian food assistance is planned, funded, and likely to guarantee a full ration through July. However, WFP faces a funding shortfall of US$49 million for food assistance that is planned through November. Planned rations and first season harvests are expected to maintain Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes through September. Based on funding shortfalls, anticipated ration cuts would thereafter lead to a decline in food security, resulting in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.