Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes likely in refugee settlements by early 2021
Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected through May 2021 in most bimodal areas, driven by near-average second season harvests, the re-opening of livestock markets, anticipated agricultural labor income during the March-May 2021 planting season, and low food prices. However, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely among households in flood-affected areas and some urban areas, where crop losses and the sluggish recovery of economic activity continue to constrain their food and income sources. In the near-term, civil unrest related to the presidential elections in January 2021 could also periodically disrupt household access to food and income sources and slow down the trajectory of economic recovery.
In Karamoja, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are prevalent due to the availability of own-produced crops and the re-opening of livestock markets, which are contributing to improved household income and purchasing power. and are likely to stay below-to-near average through May as surplus second season crops from bimodal areas enter the local markets. However, after their own crops are consumed, household income is expected to be insufficient for many households to meet their food needs. As a result, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely during the February-May projection period.
Based on ongoing humanitarian food assistance and the near-average second season harvest, Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are currently likely in refugee settlements. However, most households are still recovering from the impact of prolonged COVID-19 movement restrictions on income-earning opportunities. After the harvest is consumed and rations decline to 60 percent of a full ration from February, Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are expected from February to May. According to UNHCR/OPM, Uganda hosted 1,442,138 refugees and asylum seekers as of November 30th.