Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes expected in Karamoja through at least May 2019
Poor cumulative October to December rainfall in central, southwestern, and eastern Uganda is expected to result in slightly below-average national first season production in bimodal areas. Most poor households will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes through May 2019. In Karamoja, exceptionally dry conditions are causing early declines in livestock production, while rising food prices are expected to drive declines in the terms of trade. The lean season will begin early in February, and reduced food availability and access is expected to result in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in large parts of Karamoja.
Although staple food prices have remained below the five-year and 2017 averages across most of Uganda, sorghum is now trading significantly above average in several key reference markets in Karamoja. Surplus first season production, a reduction in net exports, and anticipated second season production had driven down prices nationally. However, scarce local food supply is now beginning to impact Karamoja. In Kotido, the terms of trade for sorghum against firewood, charcoal, and goats are now below the five-year and 2017 average, significantly restricting food access for poor households.
Uganda hosts more than 1.15 million verified refugees as of October 31st, who have predominantly fled conflict in South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo. According to WFP, humanitarian food assistance is planned, funded, and likely to maintain current rations from December through March, but funding is not guaranteed for in-kind food assistance beginning in April and for cash vouchers beginning late March. Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are likely to be maintained through March but, should ration cuts occur, food security would deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3).